NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Updated: Sep 9, 2020
- Photo Credit: Brett Coomer, Houston Chronicle
Miami Dolphins +7.5 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
October 25, 2018 5:20 PM PDT
Our power rankings framework makes the Texans about one score better than the traveling Dolphins this evening (we see Houston's edge as 3-7 points). As such, we regard the touchdown plus the hook with the road dogs as attractive.
In addition to the favorable signal from our primary NFL handicapping (power rankings) framework though, we note that since 2003 it has been profitable to bet against teams 1) on four-game straight up win streaks and 2) that covered their most recent out by double-digits (this system has delivered a 19% ROI).
Moreover, we have also observed that teams getting at least a touchdown on the road, following a double-digit straight up loss are 63-51-2 ATS (55%) since 2003. Further, when such teams are backed by no more than 40% of ATS wagers, profitability is even more compelling:
As of the time of this writing, 38% of spread bets (and 43% of spread dollars) support the Dolphins cover this evening.