- Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals o43 (-105)
State Farm Stadium, Glendale Arizona
October 18, 2018, 5:20PM PDT
When the NFL action concludes in Glendale, Arizona this evening, our computer simulation work expects the aggregate total score will have landed closer to 45 than the 43 currently listed at most sportsbooks. Accordingly, we are backing the OVER.
In addition to an endorsement from our computer simulation framework, a couple of big picture betting trends also validate our play. For one, non-conference contests featuring a road team that dropped three in a row have been ripe to go over the total. Since 2004, OVER backers have reaped better than a 12% ROI from this system.
Further, we note that the OVER has demonstrated an edge on Thursdays against moderate total lines. Since 1995, there have been 29 NFL games played on the fifth day of the week with closing betting totals between 40 and 45 and where the road team was favored to win. The OVER is 19-9-1 under these circumstances.
Also, per TeamRankings, though the Broncos and Cardinals meet infrequently (eight times since 1985), the OVER has been utterly dominant in head-to-head play, failing to cash in only once.
Happy betting!!