2018 Week 6 NFL Sunday: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-110)
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
October 14, 2018, 10:00 AM PDT
Our power rankings composite makes the Cowboys at home to be about a point better than the Jags Sunday. Similarly, not only are our computer simulation routines offering their strongest indication of support for the Dallas cover, but this secondary framework also gives a nod to the potential for the straight up home win. Accordingly, we are very comfortable with Dallas plus the swelling chalk. In fact, we regard the Cowboys as a live dog from the present spot.
The Action Network reports an opening line of the Boys +1, but it seems as though the spread floated higher after last week's out (perhaps the offensive struggles on display at Houston sapped bettors confidence in America's Team). The spread hit the key +3 level Monday and remained fixed comfortably at that figure for the last several days. However, Friday night the spread drifted up to the current +3.5.
Clearly, takers at +1 realized negative value, but Cowboys supporters should not be daunted by the significant line movement the other direction. In the past, this phenomenon has validated the potential for a payday.
Also supporting our power rankings-based play, teams with a poor ATS record have demonstrated a decided edge against teams with winning ATS records from week 6 forward.