2018 NFL Week 6 TNF: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Updated: Aug 5, 2021
Philadelphia Eagles -1 (-110) @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
October 11, 2018, 5:20PM PDT
Our power rankings composite makes the Eagles away to be at least a point better than the Giants at home this week. As such, our eyes lit up when we noticed that the spread had contracted from the opening level of Philly -3 to the current -1.
In theory, sharp bettors getting down on New York en masse should cause Eagles backers some anxiety. However, favorites in primetime games that see the spread move at least a full point against them have been a great bet historically, delivering a 61% cover rate and a 17% return on investment since 2003.
Further, we note that the present is a good spot for away favs playing on little rest. Road teams that are expected to win and that are coming off a short week have covered at a 59% clip since 2003.
Bottom line: Situational trends jibe with the output from our power rankings composite. Lay the slight chalk and back the favorites tonight.