San Francisco 49ers +10 (-115) @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
October 15, 2018, 5:20 PM PDT
Per our power rankings composite, the 49ers and Packers play through five weeks of NFL action has earned grades that suggest Green Bay is 5-7 points better than San Francisco at Lambeau Field Monday evening. As such, the +10 (-115) line currently available at Bovada.lv seems to offer ample value on the road team. Additionally, several situational trends also hint that this is a favorable spot for the Niners cover. We detail these supports below.
First, we note that big, road dogs have exhibited an edge versus the number historically, so this pick fits with the broader historical context. Since 2003, visiting teams receiving at least 10 points are a nominally profitable 214-195-10 ATS. The cover rate improves meaningfully though (to 58%) when we consider only games played later than 5PM Pacific (i.e. primetime games).
The hit rate gets better still when we narrow our universe to include only big, road dogs playing specifically on Monday night. This cohort is 14-8-2 ATS since 2003, for a 21% ROI.
Separately, The Action Network's John Ewing has observed that favorites that failed to make a playoff appearance last year, but that have a winning record this season tend to struggle versus the number through week 8. Fading such teams has been solidly profitable, including a 6-4 run so far in 2018-19.
And finally, when facing a decision between two teams with poor against the spread records, bettors have been paid to take the points. Since 2003, clashes resolved in the underdog's favor (ATS) 61% of the time when two teams with ATS win rates no better than 40% come together in a game with a spread greater than a touchdown.
The ROI swells from 17% to 32% in scenarios where the spread reaches double-digits.
Happy betting!!