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2018 NFL Sunday Week 6: Trends and Picks


The aggregate output from our power rankings model registered a 4-3-1 record against-the-spread last Sunday, good for only a nominal profit. Fortunately, this year's process entails sifting through the history at our disposal in an effort to identify games that offer the best context for paydays. This exercise resulted in our paring our pick list down from nine plays to two AM and one afternoon bet, and consequently served to shave the week's losers off our bet slip. All three of our 'official' recommended picks cashed in, adding up three units to our account. Regrettably, our 'leans' did not fare as well, finishing 0-2 ATS. Nonetheless, our season-to-date record on 'official' plays improves to an impressive 14-7-1 ATS (67%).

For week 6, our power rankings work generated six NFL Sunday plays, while our computer simulation framework emitted signals for four games. Our output for the entire week 6 NFL Sunday docket is shown below (bold wagers indicate agreement between our power rankings and computer simulation approaches; purple wagers represent picks from our sim routines).

The vast majority of this week's picks side with square bettors. Of the eight picks listed above, only the Broncos and Cowboys are supported by less than 45% of spread wagers talked by Sports Insights as of the time of this writing. This is of some concern to us, as fading the public has been exceptionally profitable this season.

Contrarian bets have been an especially profitable 34-14-1 ATS (71%) this year when the percent of dollars wagered is greater than the percent of bets.

On the other hand, we note that this trend is not enduring. Over the two prior seasons, for instance, teams are a meager 49% from this spot.

Also, we find some solace in the Eagles cover in the latest edition of Thursday Night Football. Philly's emphatic ATS win came despite attracting the backing of 62% of spread wagers and only 41% of dollars bet. We can only hope that this outcome is a harbinger for what is to come through the remainder of the week.

Happy betting!!

 

Featured Week 6 Games:​

  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

  • Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders

  • Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

  • LA Rams @ Denver Broncos

 

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Our primary NFL handicapping framework gives Cincy about a one point advantage as hosts to the Steelers Sunday morning. As such, we feel pretty darn good about the Black and Yellow plus the 2.5.

In addition to the supportive indication from our power rankings work, we note that teams with bad ATS records on the year have fared well historically against good teams ATS, once the season starts rolling.

Also, we remind our audience (again) that it has been profitable to fade turnarounds in the front half of the season. For the first eight games, fading favorites that did not make the playoffs last year but that have winning records at present has delivered double-digit ROI since 2003 (and is 6-4 ATS so far this year).

Further, we note that since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, the Steelers have been a rock solid 25-17-1 ATS (60%) as road dogs in general, and an even better 16-9 ATS (64%) over this span as short underdogs (i.e. receiving 3 points or less).

 

Seattle Seahawks -3 (-115) vs. Oakland Raiders

Our power rankings work calls for a final outcome closer to Seattle -5 when the Seahawks take on the Raiders, so we are comfortable laying the field goal with the favorites.

Importantly, this game marks the first of three scheduled contests this season to be held across the pond, at London's renowned Wimbley Stadium. As such, the Raiders will not have a home field advantage. We have observed that in situations where regular season NFL contests are decided on a neutral field, it pays to side with the favorites against the spread.

This result appears to be fairly robust, as when the spread is a touchdown or less in games played before an impartial crowd, favorites covered at a grand rate of 65% (17-9-2 versus the number). Further, favorites with a cover rate no better than 40% are 10-2 against the betting line (83%) overall on a neutral field, and 5-1 (83%) ATS facing opposition that has also struggled against the spread.

 

Buffalo Bills -10 (-110) @ Houston Texans

Our power rankings work gives Houston no greater than a 9 point advantage versus Buffalo Sunday (including a home field adjustment). Thus, we regard backing the road dogs plus double-digit points as an attractive proposition.

Supporting this notion, fading poor teams slated as big favorites has been a winning gamble in the past. Teams with a losing record have covered at a miserly 38% clip since 2003 when laying 10 or more.

Also, in contests between two teams with losing records against-the-spread, it has paid to back the underdog when receiving more than a touchdown.

 

LA Rams @ Denver Broncos +7 (-120)

While our power rankings work is equivocal on the Rams at the Broncos, our computer simulation routines argue strongly that Los Angeles is, at most, two field goals better than Denver Sunday.

Further, the first macro-level trend we cited as a support for the Steelers (relating to poor teams against-the-spread having their way with solid ATS teams, from week 6 forward) also favors Denver Sunday.

Separately, the note that the perennial LA sunshine that the Rams have enjoyed since 2016 may have spoiled the team. Temperatures are expected to range between 20-27° F in Denver Sunday, with an 80% chance of snow (slightly cooler than LA's 73° forecast). Since 1995, home teams playing outdoors in the cold (i.e. 25° or below) are 18-14 ATS (56%).

Inline with this theme, The Action Network notes that the two games Jared Goff has played in sub-40° climates produced only one touchdown and three interceptions (and one cover).

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