2018 NFL Week 5: Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston Texas
October 7, 2018 5:20 PDT
Our power rankings work estimates the Texans to be somewhere between three-point dogs and two-point favorites at NRG Stadium in Houston Sunday evening. Thus, we are on the Cowboys plus the key 3.5.
In addition to getting the nod from our power rankings system, as a rule, when two bad teams (ATS) meet, it has been profitable to take the points. Since 2003, when two NFL teams with ATS win rates of 25% or lower match up, the underdog has covered 62% of the time.
Of note, the profitability and cover margin for this system actually improve when the road team is the underdog.