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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

2018 NFL Week 4 MNF: Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos +4.5 (-110)

Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO

October 1, 2018, 5:20PM PDT

Our power rankings composite sees about a half point of value with the home dogs this evening. We are betting accordingly.

Of note, our framework has struggled mightily so far this week (the full roster of picks generated by our power rankings composite is a disgusting 2-7 ATS...fortunately, we did a reasonable job at stripping away most of these losers by the time we posted our recommended picks; our official plays submitted a record of 1-2-1 ATS -- we still lost, but dropping about a single unit is a perfectly acceptable outcome to a gambler).

It is as hard to go 2-7 ATS as it is to go 7-2. If we were seven up and two down on the week, our natural inclination would be trepidation about our next pick, as reversion to the mean is common after stand out performances. Applying this same logic, our way-below average week 4 results may well augur that we are due for a winner. Aside from this optimistic narrative serving our personal agenda, this perspective also merits serious consideration because our season-to-date and longer-term track records betting NFL suggest we are notably better than 22% handicappers. As such, we are regarding our atrocious Sunday as variance, and unless we experience persistent losses from here, we are not inclined to tinker too much with the system.

Aside from the admittedly unscientific rationale that "we're probably due", one of the most prominent trends in effect this NFL season likewise supports the Mile High boys this evening. The simple strategy of backing teams that exhibit a higher percentage of dollars wagered than the percentage of bets is 65% ATS so far, for a profit of better than 15 units. As of the time of this writing, the Broncos attracted 38% of spread bets by volume, but 39% by dollar value. 

The difference between the percent of spread bet backing and the percent of dollars wagered is a proxy for the sharps/squares divide. In this case though, the split is more than inference (see here and here for evidence of sharps pounding Denver down from +5.5).

Separately, per data from BetLabs, we observe that team's riding three-game ATS win streaks, that are favored by between a field goal and a touchdown and whose opposition that has covered no more than one of their last three out are 19-28-4 ATS (40%) since 2003. 

On the other hand, Kansas City has played lights out football through the first three games of the year, and the Chiefs covered the last four head-to-head meetings in Denver. Nonetheless, we are content to align ourselves with our power rankings framework and professional bettors this Monday evening, and are recommending the Broncs plus 4 or better.

Happy betting!!

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