Week 1 Monday night featured games:
NY Jets @ Detroit Lions
LA Rams @ Oakland Raiders
NY JETS +7 -110 @ DETROIT LIONS
Our power rankings composite favors the Lions by less than a touchdown, making the Jets plus the key 7 figure attractive.
Consistent with this signal, we note that since the Lions took Matt Stafford in 2008, Detroit is 14-19-2 ATS (42%) when favored against non-playoff caliber competition by at least a field goal.
Moreover, there is a case to be made that the betting public has recently tended toward an overly pessimistic stance on high potential, rookie quarterbacks (such as the Jets' Sam Darnold) early in the season. The Action Network reports an 11-4 ATS record over the last two years for first-round QBs in NFL starts 1-3 (this cohort is an unremarkable 41-41-2 under the same circumstances between 2003 and 2015, however).
LA RAMS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS +6 -105
We make this contest to be somewhere between even and a 3-point advantage to the Rams, suggesting ample value on the home dogs in the second game.
Broadly speaking, teams receiving points in their own building have demonstrated a historical advantage against the spread in week 1. Since 1995, home dogs are 65-56-2 ATS (54%). This cover rate is statistically significantly different than a 50% win rate (i.e. the case of the zero talent handicapper) at the 82% confidence level.
Further, in our piece outlining our picks for NFL Sunday, we cited the BoydsBets finding that teams with 7 or more wins in the prior season tend to struggle to cover in week 1 of the current year. That phenomenon has been especially pronounced on the road, as teams that were formerly at least decent submitted a cumulative week 1 record of 126-163 ATS (44%).
Also, the bright lights of Monday night apparently suit underdogs well in the early going. Since 1995, week 1 Monday Night Football underdogs are 21-11-3 ATS (6-3-1 ATS when the spread is +6 or more). When we narrow our focus to Monday night dogs at home, we identify a smaller set of games to evaluate, but at 9-5 ATS, the cover rate for this more specific cohort is practically the same as for the broader group.
A final macro-level tidbit supporting the Black and Silver this evening: per The Action Network, NFL teams receiving 75% of more of bets in September are 66-82-3 ATS (45%).
As the fly in our ointment, sharp bettors are clearly pounding the Rams. As a result of this relentless pressure, the betting line has swelled from LA -3 to -6. The strength of this move suggests a high level of conviction from a generally well informed contingent of the betting market, and breeds some anxiety over our pick, if we are being honest.
We remind ourselves though, that being at odds with large bettors with good information does not necessarily assure a loss. In fact, four completed NFL games this week featured a percent of dollars wagered in the vicinity of (or higher than) the 68% of ATS bets that are behind the Rams currently. Each of these contests also saw the spread move in favor of the sharps' pick:
Bengals PICK (77%) Line value: +2.5 pts
Saints -10 (79%) Line value: +3.0 pts
Giants +3 (68%) Line value: +1.0 pt
Chargers -3.5 (65%) Line value: +0.5 pt
These bets finished 1-3 both SU and ATS.
Happy betting!!