Featured Week 1 Games:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 -110 @ Cleveland Browns
Our power rankings composite makes the visiting Steelers to be 7-9 points better than the Browns this week. Accordingly, we are happy to lay the four points.
In the face of this pick, we detail later a general rationale for fading traveling teams that experienced success in the prior season and that are favored to win their week 1 match-ups. We are comfortable making an exception in this case though as, while in aggregate ATS bets against quality favorites on the road have been profitable in week 1, Pittsburgh has not demonstrated a particular vulnerability from this position. The Black and Yellow are 5-3 ATS from this spot since 1995 (the year the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars were introduced into the NFL) and 3-1 ATS since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted in 2004.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins +1.5 -110
Our power rankings composite grades this game as even, so we are content to take the points here.
In addition to getting the nod from our primary handicapping framework, we note that, generally speaking, road favorites tend to struggle in the first out of a new season. Since 1995, this cohort is 54-63-2 ATS. Further, since 2010, week 1 road favorites have managed only one winning season (2016), and are a 19-25 versus the number in aggregate.
In addition, our friends at BoydsBets have found teams with at least 7 wins last season to be a losing week 1 bet ATS (since 1993)--especially on the road. Away favorites of at least average quality have covered in week 1 at less than a 47% clip over the last 25 years.
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots -6 -110 u50.5 -110
Our framework favors the Pats by at least a touchdown. Our sim work also calls for a final, combined total in the 46-48 range. As such, we recommend a pair bet on New England to cover and the UNDER.
Admittedly, this is not a GREAT spot for the Patriots ATS. Despite Julian Edelman's medical clearance return to the lineup, the Pats top receiver is serving a four-game suspension. Further, New England lost significant contributors at the WR position during the off-season. Also consider that DeSahun Watson is back under Center for Houston, and defensive studs J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus are also ready to go for the Texans.
Nonetheless, our framework suggests expectations have run too high for the talented but yet unproven Texan core. Even at 41 year of age, Tom Brady has not demonstrated the level of decline that argues strongly that he should hang up his cleats. In fact, Superbowl LVII loss aside, Brady's passer rating fell from the 2016 level last year, but still ranks the aging star among the best in the business at the position (per Pro-Football Reference, Brady's passer rating of 102.8 is 3rd in the NFL, and one of only five triple-digit ratings granted last season). Thus, we are comfortable giving TB12 and the somewhat new-look Patriots the benefit of the doubt Sunday (since Brady joined the team, New England is 2-1-2 ATS in season openers as single-digit, home favorites).
Also, broadly speaking, the UNDER has demonstrated an advantage in the first week of the NFL season. Since 1995, the low score backers have collected in 54% of opening week professional football games (annual win rates for the UNDER are statistically significantly different than 50% at the 85% confidence level). Moreover, the UNDER has fared best facing high totals in week 1. Note the better than 60% hit rate against week 1 betting totals in the 49-50 range.
Consistent with our generalization about high week 1 totals, since Tom Brady was drafted in 2000, there have been three occasions where the betting total for a Patriots' first game was 49 or more. The UNDER is 2-0-1 from this spot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 -105 @ New Orleans Saints
Our main NFL handicapping approach makes the Saints advantage over the Bucs Sunday to be in the 7-9 point range rather than 10ish reflected in Las Vegas lines at present. One train of thought explaining the surge from the opening level of Saints -7 is that the market is revaluing the impact of Jameis Winston's absence from and Ryan Fitzpatrick's insertion into Tampa Bay's roster. We note though that Winston threw three interceptions in the first meeting with New Orleans last year, and exited the game early in the second get-together. As such, we do not see this personnel swap as necessarily being a game-changer for betting purposes.
From a macro perspective, fading the largest week 1 favorite ATS has been a profitable strategy, amassing a record of 12-22 ATS since 1993.
Also, since 1995, teams that failed to make the playoffs are 12-6-1 ATS when receiving at least 10 points in the following season's week 1, per Pro-Football Reference.
And, according to The Action Network, since 1993, teams with 10 wins or more in a given year have averaged a meager 43% cover rate the next year.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants +3 -110
Our power rankings work favors Jacksonville by 1-2 points, making the Giants plus a field goal an attractive proposition. In addition to this indication from our primary approach, each of the several simulation engines in our stable also highlights the Giants as the play.
Fundamentally, we think New York's fortified offensive line, the return of superstar receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. and the drafting of RB, Saquon Barkley are reasons to back the home cover versus the Jags Sunday.
Separately, this contest marks another instance where a solid team is laying points on the road in week 1. Though this is a relatively unfamiliar spot for the Jaguars, their 1-3 ATS showing fits with the general tendency for teams to strain to cover in this situation.
Chicago Bears +7.5 -110 @ Green Bay Packers
The Bears' addition of Khalil Mack (OL) launched Chicago nine spots higher in NFL.com's power rankings. The elite linebacker will most assuredly facilitate the continued improvement of the Bear's defense (the Bears D ranked 31st by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric in 2015, 23rd in 2016 and 14th last season).
In week 1, we expect Mack's presence to stifle the Packer's already pedestrian running game, and help the Bears apply pressure to Aaron Rodgers. On the other side of the ball, the Packers secondary is weak and inexperienced (Green Bay's pass defense ranked 27th by DVOA last year and 23rd in the previous campaign), so Chicago will likely have opportunities to put points on the board.
Zooming out, covering big chalk in the week 1 of NFL action has been tantamount to resisting the gravitational pull. According to Pro Football Reference, since 1995 teams favored by a touchdown or better in their first contest of a new season are 27-41-3 ATS (39.7%). Green Bay found itself in this position each season over the three-years that end the 1990s; the Pack are 1-1-1 ATS.
Happy betting!!