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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football: Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Updated: Sep 9, 2020

Titans @ Steelers -7.0 -105

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

November 16, 2017, 5:25PM

Our power rankings and computer simulation factors unanimously endorse the Steelers to cover versus the Titans this evening. Such 'full house' signals are a profitable 5-4-2 on the season, and are 2-0-1 since week 7. Accordingly, we are laying the touchdown and backing the home team.

Fundamentally, the Steelers edge on offense is notable. Pittsburgh boasts the sixth best overall offense in the League, per DVOA (ranking sixth in passing and 12th running the ball). The Titans, conversely, are merely average on offense (the strength of Tennessee's fourth-ranked rushing game is largely offset  by their #24 aerial attack).

Further, Pittsburgh is as good defending the run as Tennessee is at executing their ground game, so the Titan's have no advantage in this category. In fact, the Steelers defense qualifies as elite all-around (Pittsburgh is 4th guarding the run and fifth at stifling the pass). 

Through the lens of betting trends, the outlook for tonight's action appears somewhat mixed. Since 2006, Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS in the ten Thursday Night Football appearances where they have been favored to win. But over the same timeframe, Tennessee is is 3-2-1 receiving points on Thursday Night.  

Moreover, at 2-1 ATS the Steelers have been solid at home this season (after amassing a 5-4 ATS record at home last season). On the other hand, the Titans are a meager 1-3 versus the number when traveling this year, after finishing last season with a 3-5 ATS road record.

In the Titans favor though, we note that Tennessee has covered the last three in a row facing Pittsburgh, as well as five of the last seven. The Titans are also 3-2 versus the number in their last five at Heinz Field. Our analysis does not suggest the visiting team is equipped to muster the cover this evening though. 

Bottom line: The Steelers advantages tonight include edges on offense and defense as well as location. We see Big Ben, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster -- all top-ten at their position, having a day against the Titans' porous secondary. We would not be surprised though to see the Steelers Le'Veon Bell, the fifth-best Running Back in the NFL by DYAR, get in to the act as well. Bet on the home cover.

Happy betting!!

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