Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 -110
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
October 22, 2017, 5:30PM Pacific
Our power rankings work gives Philly roughly a six point edge as hosts to Washington in the NFL's seventh installment of Monday Night Football. As such, we are betting on the home cover.
Consistent with our throwing support to the Eagles, we note the resurgence of favorites this week. Despite the stellar ATS performance of underdogs of late (teams receiving points are 37-21-1 between weeks 3 and week 6), favorites are 8-4-2 versus the number so far in week 7.
Another macro level buttress for our pick owes to research that finds the value of home field is magnified in contests with national focus. Vergin and Sosik (1999), for instance, observed that home teams covered right at 50% of the time between 1981 and 1996, however, the ATS win rate for teams playing in their own facility improved to 59% when considering only Monday Night Football and playoff games.
Consistent with these authors' conclusion, Washington has shown a tendency to shrink on the road under the bright Monday night lights. Since 1990, the Skins are 6-7-1 ATS from this position. Conversely, over this same timeframe, Philly boasts a winning record of 13-10 versus the line when playing at home on Mondays.
Happy betting!!