NFL Week 3 Monday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals +3.5 -130
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Monday, September 25, 5:30 PM Pacific
Our power ranking framework makes the Cardinals at home to be the Cowboys virtual equal heading into Monday Night Football. As such, we are comfortable backing the road dogs to cover tomorrow.
Dallas is 2-2 as away favorites in the Dak Prescott era. The Cowboys are also 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road, 2-7 in their last nine overall and 1-4 in the last five versus Arizona (though these teams do not play often).
Arizona has not been cast as home dog since the 2014 season. The Cards were 3-1 ATS from this position that year.
Fundamentally, the Cardinals' defensive prowess is likely the key to an Arizona cover. The Cards rank 8th by FootballOutsiders' DVOA statistic, and are expected to finish the season in 5th.
More broadly, we note that week 3 has been a ideal spot to back underdogs -- especially at home. Overall, teams receiving points are 11-4 ATS, while home dogs are 7-2.
Further, including Arizona, there are five teams that attracted less than 30% of betting volume this week. Such teams are .are 4-0 versus the number so far.