NFL Week 3 Thursday Night Football: LA Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Updated: Sep 9, 2020
LA Rams @ San Francisco 49ers u39.5 -115
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
September 21, 2017 5:25PM Pacific
Our three independent sim routines are unanimous in forecasting a low scoring event when the Rams visit the 49ers in the 2017 season's third edition of Thursday Night Football.
Consistent with this expectation, the Niners posted 3 and 9 points respectively in weeks 1 and 2, and their O/U is 0-2 so far this year. And while the Rams O/U is 2-0 at present, we note that both of those contests were hosted by LA. The Rams OVER was 57% last season playing at home, but the UNDER cashed in at about a 63% rate when the team traveled.
We think the Rams defense, which FootballOutsiders' DAVE statistic projects will finish the season ranked 4th, will stifle the Niners offense, as did the Seahawks last week and the Panthers the week before (akin to LA's high seeding, Carolina and Seattle rank 2nd and 3rd by defensive DAVE). Moreover, we expect Los Angeles to be less effective with the ball away from the comforts of home, as has been their tendency recently. As such, conditions tonight appear ripe for another payday for the UNDER.
Betting trends too seem to favor the UNDER this evening. For instance, San Francisco's UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight Thursday Night games, the Niners O/U is 5-12 at home since the start of the 2015 season, the UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the 49ers and Rams and is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in the Bay Area.