New England Patriots ML -145 vs. Atlanta Falcons NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
February 5, 2017, 3:30 PM PST
For all the attention the Falcon's explosive offense has garnered this year, in our estimation, the Pats are equally as good with the ball. In fact, excluding the Patriots' first four games of the season (during which New England's QB, Tom Brady, was barred from action due to suspension) FootballOutsiders.com estimates these teams to be equally proficient with the ball.
It occurs to us that Atlanta's offensive accomplishments might merely stand out because the Falcons' ascendance to the position of premier offense is a surprise. After all, Atlanta's offense ranked 23rd last year by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) -- the Falcons' average and median position over the last five regular seasons is 12th by this measure. Also supporting the 'surprise factor' thesis, consider that the Falcons came into the season with a FiveThirtyEight Elo Rating of 1488, which suggests Atlanta was thought to be slightly worse than average. Through the regular season and playoffs though, Atlanta's Elo Rating improved to 1688, or better than touchdown above average.
Conversely, the Patriots offense has been so consistently elite for so long that New England's excellence looks mundane, and is simply expected. To this point, despite all the ever-prevalent bluster about the strength of the Matt Ryan-led attack, Brady's Patriots' offensive prowess ranked just behind the Falcons by DVOA. Moreover, over the last five seasons, the Pats offense sorted no worse than 6th by this gauge. Thus, in our estimation, Atlanta's offensive edge is, at best, negligible and, at worst, non-existent.
On the other hand, the Patriots' and Falcons' defenses are disparate. Atlanta's D finished the season 27th by DVOA, owing largely to struggles against the ground game (Atlanta is 29th in the League facing the run). This is particularly relevant as the Patriots boast a robust and effective rushing attack, spearheaded by LeGarrette Blount, who ranks 14th at the running back position by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). New England is 5th in rushing play percentage, 5th in rushing TDs, 6th in first downs by way of the run and 12th in rushing yards per game (If the Pats can hold a lead late, this potency running the ball could deny the Falcon's offense a shot at a final score.)
In contrast, while New England is certainly no defensive juggernaut, Matt Patricia's crew is above average, overall, and is especially good at limiting opponents' rushing productivity (4th against the run by DVOA). The Patriots' rush-stopping ability is germane as Atlanta too utilizes the run to a great extent (the Falcons are 3rd in rushing TDs, 5th in ground yards per game, 7th in 1st downs from the run and 11th in rushing play percentage). Importantly, Atlanta has needed solid contributions on the ground to be successful. The Falcons lost each of the three games this season where they recorded fewer than 100 yards running the football and no rushing touchdowns.
At the macro level, it is not lost on us that the Las Vegas favorite has not only failed to cover, but has lost outright each of the last five Superbowls. However, we also know that top-scoring NFL offenses that reach the pinnacle game are not exactly shoe-ins for Superbowl wins (such teams are a meager 10-10 straight up). Moreover, in the five instances where the highest scoring offenses have faced the stingiest defenses (as measured by points allowed) in the Big Game, defense prevailed on four occasions.
At 15-3 against-the-spread and with a 12.7 point average margin of victory versus the number, the Pats have been the best bet in professional football this year. And despite his advanced years, Tom Brady has looked rather infallible this season -- perhaps like a superstar with a chip on his shoulder...maybe related to the insinuation that his success was more related to the amount of pressure in the football than a combination of talent, plus experience, plus intense and meticulous commitment and preparation.
At any rate, we are comfortable backing the favorite on the moneyline in Superbowl 51. The bottom line is that we see the Atlanta and New England offenses as essentially equally effective. The difference is on the other side of the ball, where the Pats edge against the run -- an important component of the Falcon's attack, is sizable. Look for the Patriots to buck the trend of the last several years and capture the Lombardi trophy tomorrow, on the strength of a rushing defense that contains Devonta Freeman (#12 by DYAR at the RB position) and Tevin Coleman (#18 by DYAR), as well as solid performances from both the aerial and land-based facets of their offense.
Happy betting!!