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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NFL Wildcard Weekend: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers -4.5 -110

Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

January 8, 2017, 1:40PM PST

Our primary NFL handicapping factors call for a home cover when the Packers host the Giants for a shot at the second NFC Wildcard playoff slot. In aggregate, our main indicators give Green Bay a 5-7 point edge. Additionally though, our sim work, on average, favors the Packers by better than a touchdown (however, this secondary approach does give the Giants a non-trivial chance of beating the number).

Also supporting our play, consider that after a sub-par start to the season, Aaron Rodgers has tossed for 18 TD with zero INTs since week 10, elevating the vet's QBR to fourth-best in the League. Largely on the strength of the turnaround in productivity at the quarterback spot, the Packers won their last six outright and went 5-1 ATS over this period.

New York's rushing defense is notoriously strong, versus both the ground game and aerial attack (by DVOA, the Giants rank 4th guarding the pass and 3rd against the run). However, offsetting the Giant's defensive prowess, we note that Green Bay boasts the League's 4th best passing game and 5th best rushing attack.

From the purview of betting trends, Green Bay is 5-2-1 ATS at Lambeau Field this year (4-2-1 when laying points at home) and 7-4-1 against NFC opposition. On the other hand, New York is a meager 3-3-1 this season away from home, including a 2-3-1 stretch as road dogs.

Happy betting!!

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