NFL Week 13 Sunday AGAINST THE SPREAD Betting Guide
After a fiery stint in weeks 10 and 11 (we were 9-4-3 over this period), we could only manage a 4-5-2 showing last week. We proved prescient in picking the Bucs vs the Seahawks, and the Giants and Saints delivered. However, our Bears and Bengals picks missed a payday by, literally, the slimmest margin possible, and our Cardinals and Texans plays never really stood a chance. When the dust finally settled, our effort generated a loss of just over one unit. This soft week 12 performance pushes us back into the red on the season.
For week 13 our primary factors generate against-the-spread picks for the nine games indicated below. The table illustrates our actual wagers, including vigs we incurred, a quantitative assessment of our confidence in each play (expressed in average expected ATS margin of victory) and season-to-date accuracy stats for games selected by the current calibration of our model and featuring the involved teams.
Among our NFL Sunday picks are three focus games, or contests for which each of the five power rankings and computer simulation factors in our framework forecast the same outcome. Such full house signals are indicated in bold, italicized font. Our system is 12-5 this season handicapping these high conviction games. As such, bettors seeking limited action might focus exclusively on the Bengals, Dolphins and Cards to cover.
On the other hand, low historical accuracy casts a pall over our Chiefs at Falcons, Bears vs Niners and Bills at Raiders plays.
Separately, the sentiment backdrop lends an ever so modest support to our plays on Chicago, Buffalo and Arizona, as, per SportsInsights, these plays have garnered 42%, 39% and 35% of respective betting volumes. Empirical studies, such as that by Fabrizio and Cee (2012), validate the strategy of fading extremes in public sentiment. Specifically, as the following excerpted table shows, these authors' examination of NFL action between 2003 and 2011 identified an edge backing teams versus the number with less than 40% of public support.
Our Broncos -5 at Jaguars pick finds itself on the wrong side of public favor, as 73% of public spread bets are backing the road favorites
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