Washington Redskins +7.0 (-110) @ Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
November 24, 2016, 1:30PM PST
We like Dallas by about six at home today versus Washington. As such, we are lining up with the road dog today.
While Dallas has strung together a terrific nine game win and cover streak since week 2, we note that since 2010, the Skins are 9-4 against-the-spread facing the Cowboys, including a 5-1 stint in Dallas. Further, Washington too is rolling. Since week 2, the Redskins have lost only one game straight up and versus the number, and are riding a three game cover streak.
Per SportsInsights, betting interest is approximately evenly split between these teams (48% of ATS wagers support Washington, 52% back Dallas). Interestingly though, in spite of the public's aggregate indifference, the line has dropped dramatically from as high as Washington +9 at 5dimes Tuesday to +5.5 at present. This action constitutes a reverse line movement and implies that sharp money might be coming in on the road dogs. Researchers such as Crawford (2015) document the near statistically signifiant profitability of the backing teams with favorable reverse line movement, especially in intra-conference play such as today's match-up.
Moderating our conviction somewhat, we note that the current iteration of our framework is a meager 4-4 ATS picking Dallas games, and a deflating 2-6 in Washington games. Moreover, none of our primary (power rankings) or secondary (computer sim) lines call for an outright win for the away team. Accordingly, more trepidacious bettors might consider playing for a middle (i.e. siding with Dallas on the moneyline and Washington ATS). For instance, at WAS +7 -110 and DAL ML -240, betting 42.6% units on the Skins to cover, and 57.4% units on the Boys to win results in a potential loss of 18.7% units if Washington wins straight up, but a 62.6% units profit if Dallas wins by less than 7, for a very favorable risk/reward ratio of about 1:3.5.
Happy betting (gobble, gobble)!!