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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NFL Week 12 Turkey Day Action: Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-130) @ Detroit Lions

Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

November 24, 2016, 9:30AM PST

We like the Vikings to extend their cover streak to two games. Our primary handicapping factors make this Thanksgiving Day meeting to be a virtual draw. so we find the points attractive.

Further, we point out that the Vikings have dominated head-to-head play with the Lions since 2010. Minnesota is 9-4 ATS over this span, including a 4-2 run versus the number playing in Detroit. On the other hand, while Detroit is a solid 6-3-1 ATS this season, three of their non-covers developed from the position of favorite. The Lions are 1-2-1 this year when laying points.

The sentiment backdrop likewise favors the Vikings, as a mere 39% of spread wagers tracked by SportsInsights support the away team (recall that research such as that of Paul & Weinbach (2010) validates the profitability of betting against public sentiment).

We also note that the current calibration of our primary model is 10-4 ATS picking games featuring either Minnesota or Detroit.

We paid the extra juice to get up to the '+3' level. This commitment to key spreads averted two losses last week (we had the Panthers -3 and the Texans +7). As the home team winning by a field goal is the most common outcome in professional football in recent years, we think it prudent to tolerate the bloated vigorish associated with receiving the field goal again today.

Happy betting (gobble, gobble)!!

#tnf #nfl #nfl2016 #tnf2016 #nfl2016wk12 #vikings #lions #paulandweinbach

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