Minnesota Vikings -4.5 (-105) @ Chicago Bears
Solider Field, Chicago, Illinois
October 31,2016, 5:30PM PDT
We called for an end to the Vikings five game cover streak in week 7, and the football Gods obliged. This week, our work says expect Minnesota's resurgence vs. a 1-6 Bears team that has not beat the number since knocking off the then 2-1 Detroit Lions in week 4.
Jay Cutler will return to the starting QB slot this week for Chicago, after Matt Barkley was held to just six completions (for a meager 81 yards) and two interceptions by the Packers' defense in the prior out. However, while Cutler is likely an improvement over the third-stringer out of USC, we do not think the upgrade is huge. Supporting this perspective, Cutler's value ranks below that of the prototypical backup QB by FootballOutsiders.com's DYAR stat (leaving the veteran quarterback slotted between RGIII and Geno Smith). Further, by this measure, Cutler rests only three positions north of Barkley's placement.
Also, Jay Cutler's penchant for throwing INTs is likely to play into the hands of the Vikings, whose defense collects more picks per game, on average, than all but one other NFL team. In computer simulations, Cutler produced an average of one giveaway per contest.
Our work also anticipates that Chicago's soft rush defense will yield somewhere around 100 yards and a touchdown to Minnesota RB, Jerick McKinnon. If the Bear's porous defense on the ground does indeed stimulate Minnesota's (generally absent) running game, things could get downright ugly for Chicago, as such offensive balance is likely to translate to better opportunities in the air, as if Sam Bradford and the Viking's top-ten aerial attack need a boost throwing the ball.
The Nords were installed as six point favorites, but, inexplicably, the betting line has drifted consistently lower since Wednesday. Our framework passed on Minnesota -6, but we find action south of this key level irresistible. Lay the reasonable chalk and back the Vikings to rebound following their fall at the hands of the best defense in the League.
For context, our framework is a perfect 6-0 handicapping Vikings games this season. However, we are 3-3 ATS picking Bears games. We are also 4-2 versus the number this season picking Monday Night Football.
Happy betting!!