NFL Week 8 Sunday AGAINST THE SPREAD Betting Guide
Through the first seven weeks of the season, our published against the spread picks are 33-28, for better than a 54% win rate. While this level is below our target hit rate, we note 1) that 54% is above the threshold for profitability (assuming juice of -110), and 2) that the season is less than half way through--our expectation is that our system's accuracy will improve with time, as more games played yields better data.
Heading into week 8, we highlight seven against the spread picks (detailed in the following chart). While our primary, power rankings, factors identified nine games total, we disqualified the Jets and Eagles from consideration because our computer simulation routines argue, in unison, for the opposite outcomes. As unanimity among our sim programs is 14-5 ATS this year through week 7, we are inclined to heed these admonitions.
As is customary, the table above illustrates our actual wagers, including vigs we incurred, as well as a measure of our confidence for each play (measured in the expected ATS victory margin).
Starting this week we also indicate season-to-date accuracy stats for games featuring involved teams for which the current calibration of our model issued a pick. To exemplify the kind of insight that might be gleaned from this addition, consider that while our model regards the Bills at home as roughly equal to the Patriots this week (the model calls for Buffalo to cover the +7 spread with 6.5 points to spare), we are only 5-7 handicapping Bills and Pats contests this year. Thus some moderation of the high conviction call on Buffalo appears warranted. Our play on red-hot Washington also appear somewhat dubious, given the relatively low confidence rating and that our accuracy picking Cincinnati and Washington games is the second-lowest of all featured contests.
On the other hand, the selection highlighted in yellow represents our feature play of the week--the game for which we are most confident. Our system is registering full house support for the Broncos to beat the number tomorrow, meaning that all of our primary and secondary gauges are in sync in calling for the home cover. Such a signal has proven highly reliable this season, amassing a 9-3 record to date. Further, we see Denver collecting the home cover with ample margin. Our work supported ATS winners in four of the seven games featuring Denver or San Diego for which we issued recommendations.
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