Chicago Bears +5 (-115) @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
October 8, 2016, 10:00AM PDT
Our two primary (power rankings) factors suggest five points is too much for a reeling Colts team to lay this week. Two of three computer simulation routines on our roster concur. Thus, we are supporting the Bears on the road.
At the QB position, Brian Hoyer, in for Bears starter, Jay Cutler, sits among the leagues' elites (so far, anyway). Hoyer ranks eighth-best in the NFL by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement -- and sits between Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees by this measure. Further down the list, the Colts' Andrew Luck occupies the 22nd slot, at a level that puts his play on par with a replacement quarterback. Accordingly, Chicago is the better passing team this season.
The Colts offense has been powered by a top-ten rushing game this season, while the Bears are 20th guarding the run. However, as Indianapolis is 30th in overall in defense, by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, and is not projected to finish the season much higher, we expect Chicago to move the ball through the air, offsetting progress Indy makes on the ground.
Chicago has come out on top in head-to-head play, having covered in five of eight matchups with Indy, including a 3-0 ATS record in Indianapolis. The Bears are also 6-3 in their last nine on the road. On the other hand, since last year, the Colts are 3-5 against the spread as home favorites, and are 3-5 versus the number in games that follow losing efforts.
Happy betting!!