Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams u40 (-110)
L. A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
October 9, 2016, 1:25PM PDT
Our sim work calls for a combined total of 39 after the dust settles at the L.A. Memorial Coliseum this afternoon. As such, we are backing the UNDER when the Rams host the Bills.
The Rams' O/U is 1-3 this year, a testament both to LA's above average defense (the Rams rank 11th guarding the pass and 15th stopping the run, by DVOA) and their bottom of the barrel offense (30th passing, 29th running).
LA is averaging less than 16 points per contest this season, and even that ridiculously low figure is inflated by the week 3 meeting with Tampa Bay. The Rams managed a 37-32 victory that out -- but this shootout only unfolded against a defense approximately as soft as their own (the Bucs rank one slot higher than Rams by defensive DVOA). In Los Angeles' other contests this year, the standing offensive high water mark is 17 points.
The Bills are good for almost 22 a game this year, on average,including an attention-grabbing week 3 performance that registered 33 points versus the 6th-ranked defense of the Arizona Cardinals. However, facing the stopping power of the Baltimore Raven's in week 1, Buffalo mustered only a single touchdown. Further, the Bills were forced to settle for 16 points against the bottom quintile defense of the Patriots last week. As such, Buffalo appears far from offensive juggernaut status, and we are inclined to discount the uncharacteristically productivity versus Arizona as an anomaly.
In the seven meetings between these teams, the OVER has been a consistent money maker, amassing a 6-1 record all-time. However, we note that, since last year, Buffalo 's O/U is 3-6 when the Bills take to the road, 2-6 following a win and 2-3 against NFC teams. Also, since 2015, the Rams' O/U is 2-7 following a win, 3-6 at home and 0-4 against AFC competition. Thus, in aggregate, betting trends too hint that the present might be an ideal setup for the UNDER to cash in.