We show below five against the spread plays for week5 #NFLSunday. We are prominently highlighting home teams this week (as four of our five selections fit this bill), and home favorites (three of our five picks meet these criteria).
As is customary, the graphic above illustrates ATS wagers we laid, including the actual vigs we incurred, as well as a measure of our conviction for each play (i.e. the expected ATS victory margin).
Per data from VegasInsider.com, home teams demonstrated a slight edge ATS in week 4, covering in eight of the 15 scheduled contests. On the year though, TeamRankings.com reports teams are 30-33 versus the number playing in their own building. This 45% win rate is below the longer-term average of 49% (home teams are 656-688-39 ATS since 2011). Thus, there is a case to be made that a reversion to the mean, which would require a strong home stand, is due.
Additionally, home favorites are 433-466-24 since 2011, per TeamRankings.com, for better than a 48% win rate. This group is a mere 19-24 this season, however. The obvious implication is that a standout performance is required from this category too, if the historical average is to hold.
From a different angle, while this week's predilections toward the home teams and home favorites go against the grain from the perspective of recent history, in most cases, we are backing the crème de la crème of home teams in week 5. For instance, the #Vikings, #Broncos and #Cowboys are each undefeated against the spread this season, while the #Steelers are 3-1 ATS. Further, after underachieving early in the season, the #Bills recorded straight up wins and covers in weeks 3 and 4.
We supported Minnesota and Denver every week this season, and have cashed in after each of their games as a result. Given the strong records of the home teams in question, coupled with our success backing these specific squads, we are at ease with our week 5 selections.
Regarding our sole away pick, the chart above (from SportsInsights.com) shows that the spread for our Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams play has tightened considerably. This action is consistent with the idea of a road cover. However, Buffalo +3.0 is no longer available to our readers -- even at the heightened juice we laid. However, our framework regards the Bills as a bonafide play all the way down to +1.5 (a level currently available at 5Dimes.eu for -115).
Happy betting!!