Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts u48 (-110)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
October 8, 2016, 10:00AM PDT
Our computer simulation work forecasts a final score in the ballpark of 20-26, Colts, when Indy hosts Chicago Sunday morning. Accordingly, we are backing the UNDER.
Through the first four games of the season, the Bears have been unable to notch more than 17 points in a single contest. Two of the four teams Chicago has faced (namely, the Eagles and the Texans) boast top-ten defenses, so 14 points of offensive output in these two instances may be forgivable...(may be). However, registering only 17 points against the porous defenses of both the Cowboys and the Lions is harder to rationalize.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts most prolific offensive outing materialized in week 1, at the expense of the (Detroit Lions') worst defense in the NFL (by DVOA). In the three contests since, Indy has averaged just over 24 points per. Accordingly, FootballOutsiders ranks the Colts' offense 18th in the league overall, a single slot higher than Chicago's.
We can not quibble with the prediction produced by our sim work, given the noted struggles of the Bears offense, and the mediocrity of Pittsburgh's prowess with the ball.
Betting trends lend validation to the computers, as since 2015 the Bears' O/U is 0-5 facing competition from the AFC, while the Colt's OVER is 4-3 versus foes from the other conference. Moreover, in their last ten games as home favorite, the Colts OVER is 3-7. Chicago's O/U is 7-9 since 2015 when the Bears play the part of the underdog.
The small sample of head-to-head games between these teams might also be interpreted as being consistent with a payday for the UNDER -- scores disappointed three times out of the four meetings not in Indianapolis.
Happy betting!!