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NFL Week 4: Betting the Total on Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Total u46.5 (-110)

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland October 2, 2016 10:00AM PDT

Our computer simulation routines strongly favor the UNDER when the Raiders try the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday morning. The median combined score projected by our work is approximately 43, As such, we are looking for the UNDER to cover with more than a field goal to spare.

By's DVOA statistic, the Raiders offense is tops in the NFL, while the Ravens boast the league's #5 defense. We expect Baltimore's top-tier stopping ability to limit Derek Carr's proficiency this morning. Specifically, we forecast a TD/INT ratio of 2:1 (or lower) for Oakland's quarterback. We also think Baltimore's third-ranked run defense (by DVOA) will control Raiders' RB, Latavius Murray. A good day for Baltimore's rushing defense probably entails holding Murray to 70ish yards on the ground, and keeping him out of the endzone.

From a betting trends perspective, Oakland and Baltimore meet only once every two or three years, but the UNDER 5-3-1 all-time in head-to-head play (but only 1-3-1 since 2006). Further the Ravens UNDER is 1-2 overall this season, 5-4 at home since 2015 and 8-7 in conference games since last year.

Oakland's UNDER is 5-4-1 since 2015 in games played away from Coliseum.

Happy betting!!

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