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NFL Week 4 Pre-Game Insights: Significant Sunday Line Moves


So far the line value we realized on our week 4 NFL bets is 2-0 at predicting outcomes against the spread. The modest decrease in juice from the -115 we laid on the Dolphins +7.5 at Bovada.lv to -110 near the close foreshadowed a Miami ATS loss Thursday Night. The move in this morning's Jags line is more dramatic. SportsInsights reports Jacksonville moved from 2.5 point underdogs at Pinnacle a couple of days ago, to close as 1 point favorites. We took Jacksonville +3 (-125) at Bovada, a particularly friendly forum for bettors partial to dogs, and observed -145 near kickoff. Consistent with this strong signal, Jacksonville not only covered, but beat the Colts outright.

Of our remaining eight NFL Sunday picks, six have realized positive line value at present. The most significant movers are the Chiefs and the Jets. We noted in our NFL Sunday pick list that we jumped the gun in backing Kansas City and Denver, so by the time we posted our plays for week 4, the lines had tightened notably for these contests. However, even versus the then-available level of Chiefs +5, Kansas City has since gained significant favor.

Uncertainty over Seattle QB, Russell Wilson's fate for week 4, following an MCL sprain versus the 49ers last week, held up the posting of the line for the Seahawks at Jets matchup. Once Wilson seemed probable though, Seattle was installed as 2.5-3 point favorites. We hopped on Jets +3 -135, shortly before the the number started to flatten. New York is currently listed as 1 point dogs at most shops.

We illustrate below a summary of our Thursday Night Football and NFL Sunday wagers (at Bovada.lv) along with current (or closing) spread and vig data and a line value scorecard. Based on the line value evident pretty consistently down our bet slip, which is arguably a better indicator of handicapping skill than short-term results, we are enthusiastic about the action to come today.

Happy betting!!

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