NFL Week 3: Sunday's AGAINST THE SPREAD Betting Guide [CORRECTED]
Per AccuScore's database of NFL game results, between 2012 and 2015, home teams covered in only 48.8% of regular season contests. While not dramatically different than odds implied by a coin-toss, the observed edge for road teams is statistically significant.
Further, hosting teams surpassed the 50% win rate on the year only once over the last four completed seasons. Against this historical backdrop, we noted with interest that teams playing in their own building mustered a 9-7 week 2 versus the number.
Our work implicitly expects a reversion to the mean this week, as our #NFLSunday selections prominently highlight road teams. In fact, of our eight ATS picks, we are backing only the Chiefs at home.
We also note that we are taking points in all instances, save the Jets @ Chiefs selection. Underdogs have demonstrated an ever so slight edge in recent years, covering in 51% of all games played over the last four completed NFL seasons. Dogs were a noncommittal 7-7 last week (two games closed as PICKs), but only after a definitive 10-6 week 1. Look for the unfavored to make a stand in week 3.
[Our preferred wagering site did not offer a line on Denver @ Cincinnati when this post was published. As such, our pick for this game was not included in the original piece, but is indicated below. With that said, this is one of our favorite plays for Sunday, as in addition to the high level confidence conveyed by our primary power rankings factors, each of the three computer simulation routines we survey also expects a Broncos cover. ]
The graphic above indicates our against the spread picks for Sunday, per indications from our primary power rankings frameworks, as well as actual vigs we paid and a measure of our conviction for each matchup.