Panthers @ Broncos +3.0 (-105)
Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado
Thursday, September 8, 5:30PM PDT
A rematch of Superbowl 50 will inaugurate Thursday Night Football and the 2016 NFL regular season. The defending champion Denver Broncos are slated to face the Carolina Panthers for the second time this calendar year in the debut of a new NFL season.
Though originally (and appropriately, in our estimation) installed as favorites for this contest at most shops around Vegas, Denver has since slipped to the position of three point home dogs. Interestingly, the Broncos held on as favorites into summer, well after Manning's early-March retirement announcement, and, by extension, well after presumed heir-apparent, Brock Osweiler, defected to Houston (news of which broke only days after Manning rode off into the proverbial sunset).
Given these circumstances, we are left scratching our heads over why the betting line adjusted when it did. What matters though, from the perspective of a gambler, is that we view the dramatic shift as unwarranted. Our two primary (power rankings) factors for generating picks versus the number both call for the Broncos to win outright. Moreover, two of the three simulation routines we employ anticipate a straight up win for the home team Thursday (all three sim programs expect a Denver cover).
Our fundamental view is that, as Peyton Manning was a shell of his former self last year, Denver's new primary QB, Trevor Siemian (who was named starter a bit over a week ago), does not have massive shoes to fill. To his point, in 2015 Manning, hall of fame bound as he may be, ranked second-to-last (among QBs having attempted at least 200 passes) by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) — DYAR measures the value of a QB's performance (in yards) compared to a replacement level player and adjusted for situation and opponent. By this measure, Manning's productivity under center was the equivalent of 326 yards worse than an average replacement quarterback.
One might make the case though that the Broncos’ productivity at the starting QB position was not as bad as Manning’s individual numbers suggest, given that 14-time Pro-Bowler entirely missed 7 games last season. As the aforementioned Brock Osweiler, a better QB than Manning in 2015, took 47% of Denver’s snaps and threw 45% pass of the team’s pass attempts last year, a legitimate argument exists for an upward adjustment to aggregate performance from the Broncos’ starting quarterback role.
Blending Manning’s and Osweiler’s DYAR’s (weighted to reflect the two player’s respective contributions as starters) indeed raises the bar for Siemian, a second year man from Northwestern. Such an adjustment improves the Broncos’ starting QB's DYAR from 326 yards worse than a replacement-caliber QB to about 106 yards worse than average.
As such, we are not fretting over the largely unknown quantity that is Trevor Siemian — because Broncos backers do not need a record-breaking, play making, gun slinging, monster at QB, as Peyton Manning was in 2013. Instead, Siemian simply needs to not be Johnny Manziel (the 22nd overall pick of the 2014 draft earned a DYAR of -105 last season, virtually equal to that of the Manning/Osweiler blend…Manziel is currently not working in the NFL).
Broncos and their supporters do not require Mr. Siemian to pull rabbits out of his helmet because unlike the 2013 Denver team, who (by DVOA) ranked 21st against the passing game and 15th overall on the other side of the ball, the current incarnation of the Bronco’s boasts the league’s preeminent defense. Recall, after all, that the defensively challenged Broncos of 2013, despite their studly QB reaching the pinnacle of his super powers that season, got trounced 43-8 in a Superbowl meeting with the Seattle Seahawks — the Seahawks were then the NFL’s premier stoppers.
Consistent with the unanimous support for a Denver cover proffered by the multiple power rankings and computer simulation approaches we consult, empirical research also seems aligned with Denver. For instance, Vergin & Sosik (1999) documented a statistically significant bias in favor of home teams and underdogs to cover in games with national focus (and a Superbowl rematch to kick off the new season seems to constitute a game with national focus). Further, Golec & Tamarkin (1991) conclude that bettors underestimate the value of home field and are overly enamored with the favorite. Dare & Dennis (2008) add to evidence of a home underdog bias, suggesting that bettors systematically underestimate the scoring ability of the home team when Vegas pegs the visiting team to win.
Also, as Paul & Weinbach (2011) show that betting against public sentiment is a profitable strategy, we are comforted by the observation that somewhere between 68-78% of wagers (depending on the source) are backing the road favorite.
Bottom line: As practically every objective measure under the sun hints that this first game of the new season marks an ideal spot to back the home dog, we are obliged to take the Broncos and the points. We see the Denver defense picking up where they left off last season, while we think, considering the talent at his disposal (i.e. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), Siemian can manage at least average productivity against a shaken up Carolina secondary (elite cornerback, Josh Norman, left Pantherville this off-season for a lucrative deal in Washington). A mediocre showing from the QB position tomorrow, more than Peyton Manning could muster most games last season, should be adequate to secure (at least) the home cover.
Happy betting!!