Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers -1 (-118)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
January 17, 2016, 1:05PM EST
Our two primary NFL handicapping factors, both power rankings approaches, are in sync in expecting the Panthers to bypass the Seahawks in today's divisional playoff contest. While the magnitude of the expected win varies (one system calls for Newton and company to win by a point or two, while the other anticipates Carolina by about a 5 point margin), these indications adequately justify our support for the Panthers to cover. Additionally though, our multi-factor computer simulation routines also unanimously endorse Carolina to beat the number. We are therefore quite comfortable backing the Panthers.
Of note, the edge at the QB position goes to Seattle, as Russell Wilson ranked 3rd during the regular season by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, versus Newton's #11 seeding. However, FootballOutsiders.com points out that over the back half of the just completed season, the two elite quarterbacks performed remarkably similarly. As such, the Hawks' advantage is modest.
Moreover, Wilson's favorite aerial target in the week 6 matchup between these teams, Jimmy Graham, is unavailable after rupturing his right patellar tendon in November, further mitigating any leg-up passing the ball the Seahawks owns.
On the ground, the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch is expected to start at the Running Back position. However, Lynch has only averaged 60.6 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry in the five games between these teams played since Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have been at the helms of their respective offenses. This mediocre showing is likely a testament to the stout Panthers running defense, which ranked 6th best in the League last season (by Defense-adjusted Value Oover Average).
Carolina relied heavily on TE Greg Olsen in the 2015 win over Seattle--a logical outgrowth of the Seahawks notoriously poor coverage of tight ends last year. We would not be surprised to see a similarly heavy dose of Olsen today.
Games between these teams are typically grind-fests (i.e. closely contested, low-scoring affairs) and we are not convinced we should anticipate an exception today. As such, and given the signals from our models, we see the Panthers' top-ten offense and exceptional defense doing enough (perhaps just enough) to hold the Seahawks at bay as the most likely outcome of today's proceedings.
Happy betting!!