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  • Writer's picture@WizeOwlSports

NFL Week 16 Sunday Action

At 4-1, our published plays performed exceptionally well last week (the small sample size is explained by our regrettable failure to post our picks for the 10AM proceedings). We managed to maintain our momentum through the week 16 episode of Thursday Night Football by backing the Chargers to cover at Oakland. We now look to continue to roll through this penultimate week of the regular NFL season.

Our against the spread and totals picks for week 16 NFL Sunday are indicated below. As usual, we show the bets we have actually laid, including real vigs paid, along with our estimate of the outcome bracketed in red.

Carolina Panthers -6.5 (-105) @ Atlanta Falcons [ATL +7.7] San Francisco 49ers +10 (-103) @ Detroit Lions [DET -8.6] Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs -11 (-102) [KC -14.2] Indianapolis Colts +3 (-125) @ Miami Dolphins [MIA -1.5] Chicago Bears +3.5 (-105) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers [TB -2.2] Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals -4.5 (-105) [ARI -5.4] St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks -12.0 (-105) [SEA -13.6]

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons u47.5 (-105) [45.6] Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals u51 (-105) [48.6]

As a reminder, our ATS picks are based on agreement among our two main (power rankings-based) factors. We validate this primary screen though using a variety of supplemental gauges, based on power rankings, simulation algorithms and sentiment measures. Our totals wager picks are derived from the output of three independent simulation routines. We endorse O/U plays where the three inputs agree on an outcome and each offers an optimized value cushion.

Unlike last week, where, in several instances, the power rankings work was at odds with the simulation-based picks, all of our bets for week 16 are pretty well supported by our stable of secondary measures. In fact, three of our seven against the spread picks are attended by full house signals (i.e. all indicators in our lineup validate the play)--these games are shown above in bold type. While there are never any guarantees in gambling (especially after a remarkably strong week), consistent across the board support appears consistent with the notion of another round of solid performance.

Happy betting!!

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