Arizona Cardinals -3.5 (-105) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
December 20, 2015 8:50PM EST
The two lynchpin (power rankings) factors in our NFL handicapping model call for the Cardinals to beat the Eagles by 7 and 4.6 points, respectively. Supplemental power rankings approaches corrobate this perspective, as our power ranking composite points to Arizona by 7.1.
Simulation factors are not overwhelmingly supportive, as one of the three inputs in our model gives Philly a three-tenths of a point edge versus the number. Nonetheless, our sim-based composite suggests the Cards -4.0.
Palmer is the absolute best in the business, per Footbal Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric, and the Cardinals offense ranks 5th in the League (by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as a result. Similarly, Arizona is fourth-best in the NFL at stopping the opposition (as also measured by DVOA).
Conversely, the Eagles offense, with 26th ranked Sam Bradford under Center, ranks 25th overall. Philadelphia does boast a top-ten pass defense, and is 11th when their oppoenents have the ball, however, our work expects the Cardinals' statistical superiorty, on both offense and defense, will prove adequate to deliver the road cover.
Happy betting!!