New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-105)
Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
December 14, 2015, 8:30PM EST
Our work favors the Dolphins at home tomorrow versus the Giants. The power rankings component expects Miami to just eke out the win (by about a point), while our sim-based model gives New York a modest (one point) edge. Either way, we like Miami to cover.
The Dolphin's offense, spearheaded by Ryan Tannehill at QB, ranks 23rd overall (by DVOA). New York ranks only slightly better at #20. Similarly, these teams are not that far apart in defensive ability, as the Dolphins are 25th overall versus the Giants seeding at 27th (as also measured by DVOA).
Of note, the Dolphins top-ten ground game likely has an advantage over the Giants' average rushing defense. As such, we would not be surprised if Lamar Miller, Miami's 4th year Running Back out of the University of Miami, has a day Monday. We view these teams as fairly evenly matched in most other aspects of the game (though we also note that the Giants' Special Teams unit is tops in the league).
Neither of these teams have been especially friendly to bettors. On the season the Giants are 6-6 versus the number, while the Dolphins are 4-8. Further, New York has dropped their last two out against the chalk, while Miami is 0-3 ATS most recently.
Also, both teams have been bad under the bright Monday Night Football lights. New York is 1-5 versus the number in their last six Monday night games, while Miami is 0-6.
The Dolphins and Giants face each other only rarely (i.e. six times in the last 30 years), so though Miami has won the last three games versus the betting line, we question the relevance of this observation as these contests were spread over 12 years.
Bottom line: In what we see as a close game featuring two reasonably similarly ranked teams, we are siding with home field. The Phins plus the points is our play.
Happy betting!!