San Deigo Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens -3.0 (-110) u50.0 (-110)
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
November 1, 2015, 1pm EST
The Linemakers cite some interesting betting trends that support our bias in favor of the Ravens to cover: the Chargers are a dismal 1-5 ATS in their last six games, a horrid 1-12 versus the number when facing AFC teams and 0-6 in their last half dozen games against teams with losing records.
While we have been burned by the Ravens' disappointing play already this season, we are sticking to the numbers and backing Baltimore at home against San Diego. Our primary power rankings factors make the Ravens 4.4 points better than San Diego today, as does our composite. Similarly, two of the three simulation/algorithmic models we survey also point to a Baltimore cover, with about a point to spare.
In aggregate, our quant work anticipates a final score in the realm of 26-23 Ravens, which supports both the Ravens to cover as well as the UNDER.
In the five meetings since 2011, San Diego is 3-2 against the spread. These teams have taken turns beating the number, and the Ravens are up today. At 4-1, the OVER has demonstrated a more consistent edge though.
VegasInsider reports that the line opened BAL -2.5, but has since expanded to -4.5, representing a supportive +2 points of line value. The total line has moved against us by 1 point.
Happy betting!!