NFL Week 7: Tampa Buccaneers @ Washington Redksins
Tampa Bay Bucanneers @ Washington Redskins -2.5 (-145)
October 25, 2015, 1:00pm EDT
FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
By Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, the Redskins passing offense ranks among the league's top-ten, while the Bucs pass defense is #24 (advantage Washington). Conversely, Washington is below average running the ball, while Tampa Bay defense of the rush ranks #11 (advantage Bucs). However, acumen running the ball is not nearly as relevant in forecasting wins as is the aerial attack, so we discount Tampa Bay's edge in this area.
Further, while Kirk Cousin's struggles valuing the football are well documented, the Buccaneers actually rank one spot lower by turnover margin (slight advantage Washington).
The Buccaneers passing game earns Tampa Bay the #31 spot by DVOA. The Skins #11-rated pass defense will be on the other side of the scrimmage line this afternoon (advantage Washington).
Given how bad Tampa Bay is throwing the ball, the Buccaneers run the ball alot (ranking #3 in running plays as a percentage of total offensive plays called). However, the Bucs ground game is below average, ranking #23 by DVOA. What's worse for Tampa Bay fans, even with their middle-of-the-pack #16 DVOA ranking, Washington is better defending the rush than Tampa Bay is at running the ball (advantage Redskins).
Thus, among these two 2-win (read: bad) teams, the writing on the wall suggests Washington's superior passing game, combined with Tampa Bay's especially poor passing defense and home field advantage should elevate the Redskins to a cover.
Inline with this rationale, all but one on the indicators in our stable point to a Redskins cover. As such we are laying less than a field goal and siding with the home team.