New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts -4.0 (-118)
Sunday, October 25, 1:00pm EDT
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
As measured by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, the Saints boast the absolute worst overall defense in the league, as well as the absolute worst passing defense in the league (New Orleans' D is #23 against the rush). So while the Saints' Drew Brees is more potent with the ball than is teh Colts Andrew Luck (#11 vs. #19 by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), we expect Luck to have the easier night out given New Orleans inability to stop the pass. Exacerbating this situation, the Saints are impaired at the cornerback position, with injuries to Keenan Lewis and Damian Swann, so New Orleans' secondary might be particularly vulnerable this afternoon
The pillars of our power rankings work call for a Colts win by about 6. Two of our three simulation/computer prediction models validate this pick, as does our logistic regression model (which inlcudes our power rankings and sim work but also considers sentiment factors). Picking the home team and laying the reasonable chalk.
Happy betting!!