New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts +11.0 (-120)
Four of the five factors in our power rankings composite point to the Colts covering the spread as hosts to the Patriots this evening. With Andrew Luck slated to start for Indy (after missing the previous two games due to an ailing shoulder) our power rankings-based efforts in aggregate call for New England to prevail by a touchdown or so. Similarly, our simulation and computer prediction inputs suggest the Patriots' advantage is in the 3-7 point ballpark.
Before being sidelined by injury, Andrew Luck's play was progressively better from one week to the next (the 4th year Stanford man's completion percentage climbed from 53% in week 1, to 57%, to 60% by week 3 -- in fairness though his number of attempts declined each week, perhaps making increased accuracy more attainable). Regardless, Luck's average 2015 Total QBR of 32.8 leaves a ton of upside to last year's form, where Luck ranked 13th by this metric. Our view is that Luck will pick up where he left off at the end of week 3.
In spite of the Pats lock down pass defense, we are looking for Indy to take some shots in the air and to keep the game closer than the 11 point spread can tolerate (recall Indianapolis relies on the pass more than 21 of the 32 teams in the NFL).
+11 is the season's largest home team spread. We think the public bid the number up unduly on the basis of New England's spectacular success this year. As a sign of excessive optimisim, CBSSports experts are unamimous on the traveling Pats to cover the double-digit chalk. In seasons past, such unamimity has been as solid contrarian indicator. The general public too is solidly aligned with New England against the spread.
We, on the other hand, prefer to bet with the house. Take to home dogs and the mess of points here.
Happy betting!!