Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons -6.5 (-125)
FOXGeorgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
October 11, 2015, 1:00pm EDT
Atlanta is embarking on a terrifcally rare turnaround. Last season, the Falcons won 6 games total and finished the season ranked #24 by FiveThirtyEight's Elo Ratings (Atlanta was #25 at the end of the 2013 season). Through the first 4 games of 2015 though, the team is perfect both straight up and versus the betting line, and are #7 per FPI and #9 per Elo Ratings.
The Falcon's ascension of the Elo Ratings ladder dwarfs advances by other teams this year (Atlanta's Elo score is up 93 points since before week 1; the next closest teams by this measure are Green Bay and Cincinnati, each having gained 69 Elo points over the last four weeks). The Falcon's current Elo score translates to an expected regular season record of about 12-4 (or 8-4 for remaining games).
Similarly, Atlanta's strong showing this year has elevated their FPI rating by 3.9 points, good for fourth best improvement this season (FPI was more surprised by the progress of Arizona, Cincinnati and Tennessee).
Importantly, there is evidence that the Atlanta's much improved play is for real.
After ranking #30 last season, the Falcons are the 8th most reliant offense in league on the run, as measured by rushing plays as a percentage of total offensive plays. The Falcon's second year Running Back, DeVonta Freeman, is the highest rated in the league at his position by Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, so it makes perfect sense to us that Atlanta makes frequent use of such a potent weapon.
To be clear though, anchored by not one, but two top-20 receivers, Atlanta's passing game is their bread and butter. This is demonstrated by the observation that though the Falcons turn to the run more than 24 other NFL teams, and Freeman is posting superstar-caliber numbers so far this season, Atlanta sorts as only #20 by rushing yards as a [percentage of total yards.
Julio Jones' greatness will undoubtedly challenge Washington's ability to defend the passing attack (Jones' greatness has challenged every defense he has faced this year). The premier receiver is rated #2 by DYAR for 2015. Additionally though, Atlanta's Leonard Hankerson (formerly of the Redskins) has emerged as the #2 receiver for Atlanta. Hankerson is #13 among WR's with a minimum of 16 passes by DYAR. Playing with a capable quarterback and a cast of other top-tier skill players for the first time in his prefessional career, Hankerson is on pace to more than double the output of his most productive years in Washington.
Speaking of capable skill players on the Falcon's roster, QB, Matt Ryan has had no problems consistently locating his preferred targets. Through 4 weeks of action, 'Matty Ice' is rated #5 both by DYAR and Total QBR.
Unfortunately for Redskins fans, Washington rates #21 guarding agaisnt the pass, so we anticipate Ryan, Jones and Hankerson will put up big numbers this Sunday. In fact, the Falcon's passing game is likely to be tasked with the bulk of the heavy lifting on offense tomorrow, as the Skins are a stout #7 against the rush (while Atlanta RB, DeVonta Freeman, registered 3 TDs each in weeks 3 and 4, the opposition in those contests, the Cowboys and the Texans, boast lower third quartile rushing defenses -- ranking #20 and #22, respectively; when facing the top rushing defenses of the Eagles and Giants, Freeman's output was pedestrian, at best).
So while we anticipate the Falcon's ground game will show a significant cooling down versus the red-hot pace set in weeks 3 and 4, we expect Atlanta's passing game to pick up the slack and thrive against the sub-par Redskins' passing defense.
The betting spread opened at Atlanta -9, per VegasInsider, but has since tightened to -7 (or lower). Normally, this line movement in Washington's favor would alarm us, however, contrary to the body of empirical work on this topic, we note that changes in the betting line have been a very poor predictor of actual results this year (20-32, by our accounting). As such, we regard the contraction of the number as merely an opportunity to back the better team, with a reduced bogey.
Our collage of power rankings methodologies uniformly call for Atlanta to prevail by two scores, while two of the three simulation and computer prediction models that we track expect a Falcons cover by a range of 7-11 points. One (sim) factor dissents, calling for Atlanta to eke out a close win but to miss the cover.
We paid up for -6.5 (at 5Dimes), as the home team -7.0 is the third most popular outcome in NFL spread betting over the last five complete seasons. But we are comfortable backing the home favorites here, given that Washington's weakness plays right into Atlanta's strength.
Happy betting!!