Week 1 NFL Betting: High Conviction Play on Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears +7 (-115)
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
September 13, 2015, 1pm EST
The Chicago Bears will host the Green Bay Packers Sunday in their opener to the 2015 NFL season. Adjusting ESPN's Football Power Index, our preferred power rankings system, to account for the Bears' home field advantage makes Chicago out to be roughly 6 point home underdogs, hinting that value exists for against-the -spread backers of the Bears.
Additionally, the two independent simulation routines that we employ both call for a play on the Bears to cover the chalk (these factors anticipate that the Cheeseheads will garner the win, but by one or two field goals, not a touchdown).
Sentiment too is tilted excessively in Green Bay's corner. To wit, as of the time of this writing, SportsInsights reports that a meager 14% of public wagers they monitor support Chicago.
The so-called experts also seem to be endorsing the favorites with the utmost vigor. The pros at CBS Sports, for instance, are unanimous in thier expectation for the Packers to beat the number.
In an exploration of the predictability of the outcome of NFL games, Boulier & Stekler (2003) conclude that expert predictions contain less value than the betting market itself or power rankings-based handicapping approaches. This finding is consistent with our experieince over the last couple of seasons, where we have profitted from betting against unanimous expert NFL picks (see here and here for examples).
Bottom Line: All of our indicators are in sync for this game: our FPI based rankings approach, our two sim systems, and various measures of sentiment each highlight value taking the Bears plus the points. Betting Chicago +7.