Our analysis of the Bills at the Jets last week called for Kyle Orton to have his way with the sub-par New York defense. Check: Orton threw a career-best tying four touchdowns on 10-17, for 238 yards. We also expected Geno Smith to revert back to the form he showed in the first six weeks of the season, after giving the Patriots all they could handle in week 7. Check, again: on eight attempts, Smith found receivers only twice, recorded three incompletes and threw three picks--after which Geno was promptly yanked in favor of backup QB, Michael Vick. The second-stinger didn't fare much better though, and Buffalo beat New York soundly, 43-23, in what would be an easy cover.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphiins, who we also picked to cover, managed fewer third down conversions, fewer total first downs, fewer passing yards and fewer rushing yards than the Jacksonville Jaguars, yet the Fins never trailed during the game, and with a final score of 27-13, covered the six point spread in sweat-free fashion. Miami's, improbale success last week owed largely to rookie Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles' two pick-sixes.
It was only Andy Dalton's antics that roiled our run at handicapping perfection in week 8. Down by four points with 57 ticks left on the clock, the Cincinnati quarterback was able to sneak the ball into the end-zone from the 1-yard line (for the second time of the day). The Bengals would ultimately edge past the Ravens 27-24 in a tightly contested match.
Thus, after a disastrous 1-4 week 4, which we followed up with a 2-2 week 5 and a 1-1 week 6, we enjoyed our second consecutive profitable (2-1) week, and are back to modestly profitability as we come to the mid-point of the season.
WIth 54.8% of our picks panning out on the year so far, we still expect above-average results from here, as history suggests we should (on average) end the season with a win percentage in the high-50s.
To kick off week 9, we tweeted our bias toward the New Orleans Saints -3 at the Carolina Panthers ahead of this Thursday Night Football match-up.
We felt that, while both teams were off from last year's form, New Orleans higher-octane offense would be the difference, especially considering that the Drew Brees-led Saints seemed to be rolling after giving Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers a hearty 44-23 thumping. Also, we were sure it was not lost on New Orleans that the winner of this game would assume the top spot in the NCF South division.
The balance of the Saints aerial and ground attacks was indeed too much for the Panthers to bear, and Carolina ulimately fell 28-10. So we are off to good start this week!
Looking ahead to action Sunday, our system highlights two official plays and one other lean:
Miami Dolphins -1 vs San Diego Chargers (10:00AM, Pacific)
Massey-Peabody ranks Miami as more than 4 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, compared to about a 1.5 point advantage for San Diego under the same circumstances. When considering that the Dolphins have home field advantage tomorrow, Miami appears to be more likely to win than the 1-point spread implies. The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings likewise make Miami the favorite (-2.5). Conversely, rankings by more mainstream sources such as ESPN, FoxSports and CBSSPorts pit San Diego ahead of Miami, likely accounting for the tight spread at most shops.
VegasInsider reports that Miami opened as 1 point underdogs early in the week, but Dolphins backers have swung the spread to Miami -2. SportsInsights similarly reports a favorable line change, from Miami -1.5 to -2. Moreover, SportsInsights and CappersMall observe that 80% of spread bets have flowed San Deigo's way, resulting in a favorable reverse line movement setup (we have discussed reverse line movements on several occasions, such as here).
Also, the 10,000 AccuScore simulations of this game point to Miami -1 as the most likely outcome (sporting a 1.1% higher probability of covering than San Diego). On the other hand, Elo ratings give the Chargers a slight (0.5 point) advantage.
Washington Redskins (PICK) at Minnesota Vikings (10:00AM, Pacific)
We are betting that the Redskins will continue to progress, after knocking off the Titans two weeks ago (though they failed to cover the spread), and upsetting the Dallas Cowboys in OT last Monday night (with third-string QB, Colt McCoy).
For the first time since dislocating his ankle in week 2, starting QB Robert Griffin III will line up under the Center on Sunday, presumably adding more dimension to the Redskins offense. Griffin's ability to scramble might stave off a sure-to-be aggressive Minnesota defense (which is ranked 4th against the pass, and has amassed 25 sacks this season). Keep in mind that in spite of the uncertainties/struggles at the QB position, and their lackluster 3-5 record, the Redskins still boast the 5th best rated passing game in the NFL and 7th best overall offense, which is to say that even against a solid defense, Washington should still get some things done when they have the ball. Moreover, consistent production at the quarterback spot adds balance, making the Redskins' below average run game more likely to find success, and potentially improving their offensive efficiency even more.
Widely publicized power rankings, such as those cited earlier, all place Washington and Minnesota between 23 and 25 -- explaining the ultra-narrow spread. However, as with our first pick, services such as Massey-Peabody and Don Best/Linemakers make Miami as meaningfully better than Minnesota, even after adjusting for this game being played at TCF Bank Stadium, in Minneapolis.
AccuScore simulations validate our outlook, ascribing a 52.8% chance to the Skins getting the win.
Per VegasInsider, the line opened Washington -1, but (to our chagrin) has since been bid down to a PICK by Vikings backers.
Finally, our second lean of the week is toward the Baltimore Ravens (PICK) at the Pittsburgh Steelers. We are anticipating that the Ravens 2nd-ranked defense can slow Ben Roethlisberger's attack from last week's pace (Big Ben completed 522 yards and threw six TDs in the Steelers home win over the Colts). Though Baltimore probably can not afford to allow Pittsburgh to score 52 points, as did Indianapolis in week 8, the Ravens do not need to stall the Black and Gold entirely -- the Baltimore offense is likewise potent (ranking 7th by points and 9th by total yards vs. 9th and 3rd for Pittsburgh).
The market is not providing much of an indication one way or another for this contest, as public betting is roughly evenly split over the outcome, and several sources indicate the spread is holding flat since opening at Ravens -1.5. However, SportInsights and The Linemakers report favorable line changes (the latter actually suggests Baltimore swung from opening as underdogs to their current position as a PICK or favorite).
AccuScore concurs with our selection, giving Baltimore a 1.6% probabilistic edge over Pittsburgh. On the other hand, Elo ratings see the Steelers as 1.5 point favorites. Elo ratings for all week 9 contests, courtesy of FiveThirtyEight, are shown below.
Happy betting!!