Our unoriginal (but nonetheless profitable) approach to handicapping NFL football is based primarily on cross checks of quantitative picks of two third-party systems. With some subjectivity, our methodology also overlays examinations of changes in spreads and sentiment on the output.
To some, we might have looked silly last Thursday night after recommending betting Tampa Bay +7 (the Buccaneers were routed by the Falcons). We were vindicated on Sunday and Monday though as our other two underdog picks, the Giants +2 and the Bears +3, not only covered the spread, but won outright. Thus, we finished the week 2-1, marking our third consecutive profitable week betting pro football. We are a smart 9-5 on the year, as is illustrated below.
Looking ahead to week 4 of NFL action, we highlight five official plays and one lean.
New York Giants +3.5 at Washington Redskins (September 25, 5:25PM Pacific)
Our work advocates continuing to ride the underdog New York Football Giants +3.5 at the Washington Redskins tonight. Oddsshark and SportsInsights report that the Skins opened as 6 to 6.5 point favorites. That number has since been driven down to 3.5 points. As Steven Xu (2014) has demonstrated the empirical tendency for closing betting lines to foretell game outcomes accurately and without bias, we count this as line movement as an endorsement of our Thursday Night Football selection.
Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers (September 28, 10:00AM)
In Sunday play, our quant cross-check model favors another carryover team from week 3: The Chicago Bears +1.5. The Monsters of Midway apparently opened as 1 point favorites, but have since been bid down to 1.5 point dogs -- an unfavorable movement. Most sources point to the public being reasonably evenly split over which team will win against-the-spread.
Buffalo Bills +3 at Houston Texans (September 28, 10:00AM Pacific)
Our primary quant systems also picks the team named for William Cody to beat the number Sunday. The opening line of the Bills +4 has so far narrowed to +3, adding credence to this choice. Consensus expectations for which team will cover are fairly evenly divided for this game as well.
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings (September 28, 1:25PM Pacific)
Our next play is Atlanta to cover versus Minnesota. The Dirty Birds opened at -2, but are currently priced at -3 at many shops. Thus the line has moved toward our thinking. As an offset though, we observe, from a variety of sources, that the public is overwhelmingly lining up with Atlanta. Given that fading the public when agreement is at extremes has been shown to be a profitable strategy (see this article from Oddsshark, for instance), we prefer to bet against consensus when one side receives disproportionate betting flows. However, Avery & Chevalier (2009) found that consensus demonstrated a propensity to overly fixate on recent performance (as well as on big-name or prestige teams). We think that much of the support for Atlanta owes to the previously referenced 56-14 decimation of Tampa Bay last Thursday. As such, we are comfortable betting based on our quantitative assessment of this contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (September 28, 1:25PM Pacific)
We also favor the Black and Gold against the number. Of note, betting on the Falcons and against the Bucs to cover implies that we now believe Tampa Bay's loss last week was no fluke. This seems to fly in the face of the signals from sportsbooks. SportsInsights observes that, of the bets on this game they track, more than 3 of every 4 are on Pittsburgh. In spite of this lopsided flow, the line has moved from -8 to -7.5, which, in essence, encourages more bets on the road favorite. Per Ludwiczak (2014), this likely implies that bookmakers expect Tampa Bay to cover, and are therefore content for the public to line up, en masse, on the wrong side. Betting against the house is generally a dangerous proposition. But we think that even the smart money can be wrong sometimes.
We also have a lean on Carolina +3 at Baltimore (September 28, 10AM Pacific). Our quant system gives the Panthers the nod over the Ravens against the number, however, the spread has moved away from this selection by one point.
[Note: while we wager all official plays for which we can access to a line, leans represent lower conviction picks that we may or may not bet].
Happy betting!!