The bet: Johnny Walker -115
Anthony "Lionheart" Smith is 13-9 fighting under the UFC banner. This tally includes a 3-3 run most recently, punctuated by a second round KO at the hands of Magomed Ankalaev in his last action in July 2022, on the UFC 277 card. The journeyman light heavyweight is slated to face Johnny Walker in the co-main event at UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida on Saturday, May 13, 2023.
Walker too is 3-3 in his last six contests, but has strung together consecutive finishes leading up to Saturday's action.
Bookmakers make this fight even-Steven, as either fighter can be had at -115 at BetUS.com at present. We think the older, downward trending Smith is at a distinct disadvantage heading into this contest though, so we are happy to back Walker on the cheap.
One of our favorite angles for handicapping MMA action, reach, implies a big edge for Walker. In our write-up for Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo in last week's UFC 288 main event, we detailed the advantage that significantly longer fighters have enjoyed historically. Based on MMA fights logged in the BetMMA.tips database, i.e. since April 2013, the positive correlation between reach advantage and win rate is utterly undeniable.
Walker boasts a six inch reach advantage over Smith. Fighters with arms a half foot longer than their competition are 334-309 (58%) according to this source.
Additionally, Smith is pushing 35 years of age; almost a full four years older than Walker. Age also matters in combat sports. As is shown in the next graphic, Fightnomics' Reid Kuhn has observed that older fighters tend to go down with less effort relative to their younger counterparts.
Given this context, we regard Smith's most recent performance last summer as potentially reflecting the prototypical degeneration of aged fighters. Accordingly, we are skeptical of the 12-year veteran of the promotion's ability to rebound. Supporting our incredulousness, we have observed that 33-35 year old fighters are 1,020-1,329 (43%) versus opposition between three and five years their junior, per BetMMA.tips.
We have observed that fighters with five to seven inch reach advantages, who are facing three to five years older fighters off losing efforts are 34-16 (68%) since 2013. This stats imply a moneyline in the vicinity of -210 represents a fair price for Walker.
From a fundamental perspective, Walker is the more powerful striker, as indicated by his five UFC wins by KO/TKO of seven total victories (vs. seven out of 13 for Smith). Walker is the more accurate striker (60% vs. 47%) as well. Both of these characteristics spell trouble for Smith's beard, which might be softening with each passing day. Moreover, Walker sports a perfect takedown record, better takedown defense and generally attempts more submissions than Smith. As such, we can envisage multiple paths to victory for the younger, longer Brazilian. Accordingly, we feel Walker's -115 moneyline represents a bargain.
Happy betting!!
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