UFC Betting Picks: Fading age versus youth, Denise Gomes -133
Journeywoman fighter Angela Hill will face Denise Gomes on the UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis undercard. 38-year old Hill is coming off a loss by unanimous decision to Mackenzie Dern this past May, which marked her sixth loss in her nine most recent fights (Hill is 2-4 in her last half dozen bouts). In aggregate, "Overkill" is 15-13 over the course of her nine year UFC career.
Meanwhile, up-and-comer Denise Gomes is 3-1 over a two-year stint with the promotion, including a win in the Dana White Contender Series. Gomes is a Muay Thai fighter with a penchant for finishing her opposition. Six of her eight professional fights ended in wins by stoppage, and "Dee" won her last two by KO/TKO.
This observation is important for a couple of reasons. First, an examination of the impact of age by Patrick Wyman, for the Bloody Elbow, found that reduced hormone levels attend advanced age, resulting in diminished reflexes (i.e., greater difficulty evading strikes). Also, as is illustrated in the chart below from Fightnomics, older fighters tend to exhibit a reduced ability to absorb punishment.
As such, we estimate this matchup represents a tough spot for Angela Hill, and we are comfortable laying the -133 and adding Gomes to our offcial UFC betting picks log.
As more absolute support for our perspective, we note that, historically, women fighters over 35 are 31-64 (33%) versus competition at least ten years their junior, per the BetMMA.tips database, which documents mixed martial arts fights back to April 2013.
When the materially older fighter is slated as the underdog, the historical success rate is an even worse 22%, on a 15-53 tally.
Further, aged women underdogs off losses have NEVER beat much younger opposition off wins, per this source (0-5).
These statistics imply Gomes' odds should lie at least in the -200 range, suggesting significant value with the 23-year old Brazilian at current prices.
Happy betting!!