Daniel "Suncora" Marcos -140 Over Davey "Dangerous" Grant
Davey "Dangerous" Grant is 6-5 over an almost decade-long career as fighting for the UFC. As the headline event on the UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura preliminary card, the veteran will face Daniel "Suncora" Marcos, a relative newcomer who has all of two octagon appearances (and wins) to his credit.
This bout represents an (yet another) opportunity to bet on one of our favorite angles: youth over aged fighters. At the ripe old age of 37 1/2, Grant is almost eight years Marcos' senior. We have documented before the advantage youth conveys. The following graphic, based on the expansive BetMMA.tips database (which documents MMA bouts back to April 2013), illustrates historical outcomes associated with age advantages in mixed martial arts action.
Per the BetMMA.tips database, and consistent with the graphic shown above, 35-40 year old fighters giving up 6-10 years of age to 28-32 year old opposition are a meager 120-204 (37%) when both combatants are coming off wins. Back to August 2013, fading older competitors in this spot has proven good for a 7% return on investment, given average odds of -141. Further, the 63% win rate for younger fighters in this position proved statistically significantly different than the 58% implied by Marcos' -140 moneyline, at the 95% confidence level. Accordingly, we are comfortable backing the (relatively) young Bantamweight, Daniel "Soncora" Marcos, as the modest favorite.
Rationalizing these observations, we documented in our assessment of Nassourdine Imavov vs. Chris Curtis on the UFC 289 undercard that research suggests reduced hormone levels, longer recovery periods and diminished reflexes result in a tendency among older fighters to absorb more punishment and wilt faster than more youthful competitors.
But in spite of our and others reporting on this reality, older fighters appreciably worse results relative to younger combatants remains underappreciated by betting markets, generally speaking. This neglected truth creates opportunity for objective bettors, and we will seek to capitalize Saturday.
Through a different lens, as fundamental support for our wager on Marcos, we note that "Suncora" has proven the substantially more accurate striker over the course of his brief UFC career. In two fights under the promotion, Marcos has averaged a bit more than 11 significant strike attempts and six connections per minute. Per the second chart, Fightnomics has observed that fighters' ability to endure head strikes greatly diminishes with age. In fact, by age 38, less than half the significant head strikes are required to fall a competitor compared to fighters in their early-30's.
Relatedly, defense is not exactly Grant's hallmark. "Dangerous" has eaten almost half of the shots thrown his way throughout his life as a UFC pugilist.
And while Grant appears to be the more comfortable of the two on the mat, attempting more than three takedowns per 15 minutes of action and succeeding on just under 1.5 tries, Marcos' has exhibited a solid ability, so far, to avoid being forced to the mat (Brandon Lewis was only able to execute two of 13 attempts versus Marcos in a Dana White Contender Series meeting last September...okay, so Lewis is somewhat of an unknown quantity as a wrestler, but Grant's 42% accuracy rate taking opponents down does not exactly scream "elite wrestler!", so the comparison may not be out of order).
Taken together, we interpret Grant's meager takedown rate and Marcos' solid defense against the shot as implying this contest is most likely to unfold as a standup affair. This potential plays strongly into Marcos' advantages, as his striking work rate and accuracy as well as his youth, coupled with Grant's porous defense, lead us to perceive considerable value with slight favorite. As such, we are comfortable backing Marcos' moneyline at current prices.
Happy betting!!