Backing power and youth: Jamahal Hill -140
True to his name, Jamahal "Sweet Dreams" Hill has finished his last three UFC opponents. We expect this momentum to carry forward into his bid for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight title in the UFC 283 main event in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on January 21st. As such, we are backing Hill on the moneyline.
The 29 year-old KO artist out of Grand Rapids, Michigan is slated to face storied veteran and former Light Heavyweight champion, Glover Teixeira, who ceded the belt to Jiří Procházka last June as a result of a submission loss at UFC 267. The title though was vacated after Procházka suffered a nasty shoulder injury while preparing for the rematch with Teixeira. As such, the #2 and #7 contenders will duke it out for the belt Saturday.
43 year-old Teixeira will face Hill, who is 14 years his junior, in his 27th fight under the UFC banner since 2002. This age difference conveys a substantial edge for Hill, and, in fact, represents one of our favorite betting angles. Reed Kuhn, of Fightnomics, has observed that aged fighters are significantly more vulnerable to knockdowns than their younger counterparts. Combatants in their fourth decade of life are, generally speaking, floored after about a fourth of the headshots needed to floor fighters in their 20s.
Consistent with this observation, per the BetMMA.tips database—which dates back to 2011, 40+ year old fighters off losses are 24-46 (34%) facing opposition that won their last fight and that are at least ten years younger. This observation implies fair odds on Hill's moneyline in the ballpark of -190, suggesting substantial value versus the listed line of -140.
The win rate from this position is 3-5 (38%), largely unchanged, when the younger fighter is a southpaw, as Hill is.
Hill also lords fundamental advantages over Teixeira. "Sweet Dreams" is the much more active striker, getting off 12.5 significant strikes per minute, versus about 7.5 for Teixeira. Given Hill's power—five of Hill's six UFC wins ended by KO/TKO, this hyper-activity spells danger for Teixeira.
On the other hand, the grizzled UFC veteran boasts a clear advantage grappling, averaging better than two takedowns and one submission attempt per 15 minutes of action (Hill has never attempted a takedown in the UFC...understandably so). Thus, the ground game represents the best chance for Teixeira, a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, to secure the win Saturday (Hill merely holds a BJJ blue belt).
However, the more youthful fighter's swarming standup tends to negate his opposition's ability to execute takedowns. Hill's December 2021 matchup with Jimmy Crute illustrates this phenomenon. Crute's career takedown accuracy is 75% in the UFC, on an average of almost five attempts per 15 minutes. Still, Crute was downed and ultimately finished by a mere ten significant strike attempts from Hill, inside of one minute of action (Crute's solitary shot was stuffed). It is worth noting, by the way, that Crute had faced a bonafide puncher before his encounter with Hill. In February 2020, Crute matched up with Michal Oleksiejczuk, whose UFC résumé includes five stoppages from strikes in six total wins. Crute submitted Oleksiejczuk in the first round. None of that mattered vs. Hill. We do not expect Teixeira's accolades and proficiencies will matter either.
Bottom line: we expect Hill's work rate, power and youth to prove too much for Teixeira to handle at this stage of his career. History says Hill's moneyline is significantly mispriced. Accordingly, we are happy to lay the -140 with the modest favorite in this spot.
Happy betting!!