Fundamental ability and context both support the defending champion: Betting Israel Adesanya -160
We are backing the favorite and middleweight champion, Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya versus Alex "Poatan" Pereira in the UFC 281 headline event at Madison Square Garden next Saturday. We think Adesanya wins this fight somewhere between 58% to 71% of the time, implying modest value at the present -160 moneyline.
Supporting our position, we note that Fightnomics observes advantages for Adesanya in several key areas: experience, stance, power and striking defense. We discuss the implications below.
While we do not have a ton of data on fighter success as a function of increasing professional experience, it does make intuitive sense that having seen (and, in the case of Adesanya, successfully navigated) a greater variety of in-fight scenarios offers better preparation for the range of scenarios that might be encountered next (we know though that there a point after which experience—read: age—is a negative, but neither fighter lords a meaningful age advantage in this case).
But that debuting mixed martial artists beat experienced fighters in only 43% of the 480 instances in the BetMMA.tips database offers some validation of the notion that experience at the front-end of one's career is valuable (by the way, this 43% win rate proved statistically significantly lower than 50% at better than the 95% confidence level, per a single-sample z-test). Thus, that Adesanya has spent ten times as much time in the octagon as Pereira, who is a two years his senior, has to imply some manor of edge Izzy's way.
Further, generally speaking, Adesanya's switch stance likewise conveys an advantage over his orthodox opposition Saturday. Back to late-April 2013, switch fighters are 514-380 (57%) versus conventional opposition. We hypothesize that a more dynamic approach befuddles opponents on offense and defense.
Separately, the "Distance Knockdown Rate" stat indicated in the earlier chart is defined as the number of knockdowns from distance divided by total punches landed from distance, and measures the likelihood of landing a knockdown from distance if a punch connects. The disparity here conveys the message that Adesanya is the more dangerous puncher from range.
And while Pereira is the more accurate striker (significantly so regarding power shots to the head), Adesanya boasts an offsetting solid defense and strong beard.
Izzy likewise enjoys modest advantages in grappling, but this factor is not likely to come in to play Saturday, as striking is both these men's bread and butter. Instead, this meeting is likely to play out as a stand-up affair. Adesanya has attempted all of three takedowns in 236 minutes of fight time under the UFC banner (the champ last attempted a takedown in July 2018), and Pereira has never tried to take a fight to the mat.
We would also add that Adesanya's status as the UFC Middleweight Champion also conveys a higher likelihood of success in the Big Apple this weekend. Again, per the BetMMA.tips database, MMA fighters staking straps are 206-109 (65%).
Worth noting, the tendency for champs to retain their titles is not entirely due to the reality that most champions are favored, and are therefore expected to win at a greater than 50% rate. Of 91 recorded occasions where title-holders entered the ring as the underdog, these unlikely heroes thwarted their would-be successors 42% of the time....and while 42% may not seem like a particularly strong showing, this figure in fact represents a dramatic overachievement versus expectations—betting on underdog champions has proven good for a hypothetical 19% long-term return on investment.
Thus, fundamentally, we give Adesanya the favor, but to justify laying the current -160 moneyline, consider the following observations:
Switch-stance champions are 25-13 (66%) facing orthodox competition,
However, when both fighter are off wins, this win rate slips to 58% on a record of 11-8,
But when the champion is also the favorite, the record improves to 10-4 (71%)
Averaging these three applicable probabilities results in something like a 65% implied chance of a successful title defense for Adesanya and suggests a bit of value versus the 62% level implied by the current -160 moneyline. Accordingly, we are comfortable laying it down with the defending champ for the win.
Happy betting!!