Dustin Piorier -125 Vs. Conor McGregor
Ahead of Miocic Vs. Cormier 3, almost a year ago, we observed the tendency for prior victors to prevail in MMA rematches. We cited a piece from OddsShark a year earlier that noted that, back to UFC 1, winners of the previous meeting were 71-44-3 in do-overs. Even more compelling, from 2012 through August 2019, winners of the last fight are 28-8 when favored for the rematch. In non-title UFC action, prior winners are 46-33-3 in rematches all-time, and 25-15 since 2012.
Perhaps of greater relevance though, MMA Junkie recently cataloged each of the prior 13 trilogy series in the UFC's history. The axiom of backing prior winners in rematches also holds in rubber matches, as the victor of the second meeting is 9-3 in the third contest (Frankie Edgar / Gray Maynard 2 was a draw, so this series is disqualified from consideration for this purpose).
Thus, history leans toward Dustin Poirier to repeat the feat he accomplished last summer when he handed the once indomitable Conor McGregor his third loss in six bouts.
Regarding the fundamental matchup, statistically these fighters are quite close. Note from Reed Kuhn's Uber Tale of the Tape the only modest differences between Poirier's and McGregor's physical characteristics and abilities.
We expect the difference Saturday might come down to a couple of intangibles, one being preparation (commitment). We give Poirier, the full-time mixed martial artist, a significant edge on this score. McGregor indicated his retirement from the sport last year, apparently in response to being shunned by the promotion regarding his desire to engage in four bouts in 2020. At least one outlet documenting his post-retirement lifestyle concluded that it appeared to be the real deal: there was little to no training for the possibility of a return. McGregor, of course, has come out of retirement and he did finish Donald Cerone (easily) last June in his return to action. However, it must be noted that Cowboy lost six of his last ten fights entering that contest. As such, we discount that effort materially.
Separately, we think the mental advantage that McGregor enjoyed in the first fight with Poirier is a distant memory. Conor's biggest successes in combat sports materialized after he managed to invade the mental space of his opposition. Consider the job McGregor did getting in the head of Jose Aldo in 2013, a fight that launched McGregor's star in the UFC. Or, that Dustin Poirier himself admitted to being impacted by McGregor's trash talking in their first meeting.
Along the same vein, McGregor's lowlights have come against opposition more likely to be impervious to the attempted headgames, like Floyd Mayweather, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz. Poirier's success in his second fight with the brash Irishman warrants his addition to this list.
We believe Poirier's confidence will be dramatically higher tonight, as he enters the ring off a KO win over this opponent, versus in the second fight, where Poirier could only wonder if he could perform better than in the first get-together. We do not see how Conor's antics can be effective facing a guy that KO'd him -- there is no more wondering for Dustin Poirier; he now knows he has it in him.
Happy betting!!