After dropping the first two games of their opening round matchup with the Boston Celtics, the Atlanta Hawks have at least made it a series by taking two of the last three. According to Land of Basketball, history implies an 86% chance the Celtics send the Hawks fishing, as teams up 3-2 in the first round of post-season action are 69-11. Further, the past suggests a 57% chance Atlanta can start making summer plans after this evenings proceedings, as teams winning playoffs series heading into game 6 are 190-145. Accordingly, we expect today's wagers represent the last action involving the Hawks for the 2022-23 basketball season.
We are backing the Celts for the cover, as seven-point favorites, but we also like UNDER...for a couple of reasons. For one, we detail here the tendency for the UNDER to cash in in post-season action featuring high totals (and Thursday's 230.5 fits our criteria definition of "high"). Additionally though, as indicated in the following graphic, the UNDER has exhibited a consistent edge in the latter stretches of seven-game series.
The angle described above has proven good for a statistically significant 13% long-term return on investment.
Accounting for this system's success, we theorize that teams put forth a concerted effort on both sides of the ball when the stakes are highest. This is to say that defense assumes greater import when series outcomes hang in the balance (while game 6's do not necessarily decide series, teams than win these penultimate contests to tie series improve their chances of advancing to almost a coin toss; such squads are 27-30 in game 7's since 2004-05).
Thus, we are backing the UNDER in this Thursday's action at Atlanta, as well as in every game 6 and 7 of the NBA playoffs.
Happy betting!!