So far in the 2022-23 NBA Playoffs seven games featured a betting total of at least 230...including each contest in the Kings/Warriors series. The UNDER is 6-1 from this spot. While 86% is profitability is probably an unsustainable long-term cover rate, we do not think success from this position is happenstance.
Consistent with the above quip by renowned college football coach Paul "Bear" Bryant, whose resume includes 37 winning seasons of 38 years as a head coach, we hypothesize that defense ratchets up during NBA post-season play, in an acknowledgement that the utmost effort on both sides of the ball is required to be a champion.
Though NBA playoffs games with high totals are growing in frequency given the increased pace and higher scoring on display in the League in recent years, betting totals of 230 or more are fairly rare in the big scheme of things. Of 1,554 post-season matchups since 2004-05 in the BetLabs database, only 43 have met this criterion. Backing the UNDER for games with historically high expected total scores has proven consistently profitable.
Despite the small sample size for this angle, the 65% cover rate (good for a 26% return on investment) proved statistically significant at the 95% confidence level...thanks to this season's superlative showing.
As such, we will continue to back the UNDER in games with the most bloated totals. The next such events are the Kings at the Warriors and Celtics at the Hawks Sunday, April 23, 2023.
Regarding the Sacramento / Golden State series, per data from Sports Insights, in each of the first three contests of this series, the bigger bets were with the OVER. Resultantly, the O/U lines moved as much as 2.5 points higher from open to close. The total for game four opened at 238.5, just below the series average of about 239. Average scoring for this matchup is a mere 227 though. This disparity suggests bookmakers have not adjusted to the likelihood of disappointingly low combined scoring in this matchup.
Happy betting!!