Knicks outperformance made us believers: New York -1.5 and Knicks / Hawks o213.5
As the 2020-21 NBA post-season kicks off in earnest, we can look back and identify several teams that represent clear surprises versus expectations at the start of the year. For instance, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight projected the Utah Jazz to finish with 41 wins, a far cry from the actual 52 victories amassed by the best team in the League (by record). The Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Hornets also outperformed expectations meaningfully, each securing nine more wins than expected (though Charlotte fell a but shy of qualifying for the playoffs).
But the the biggest surprise of the year is Julius Randle and the surging New York Knicks. Coming into the season, the Knicks were expected to compile yet another ugly (23-49) season. Nate Silver's outfit estimated New York's chances of making a post-season appearance to be a trivial 5%.
But the Knicks would finish the year 17 wins better than forecast. The following chart shows New York's cumulative (season-long) win rate, from mid-January to present. Note that the acquisition of Derrick Rose from Detroit in early February appears to have paid immediate dividends. Further New York appears to have turned their intensity up another notch in April, perhaps as a post-season bid began to crystallize.
ESPN's Real Plus Minus framework suggests more than 12 of the Knicks' excess wins owe to Julius Randle's excellence. Randle is the best Power Forward in the NBA, and 22nd-best player in the League overall. We are backing Randle and the Knicks versus Trae Young's Hawks Sunday, largely on the basis of two history-based systems that point to the home cover.
First, as detailed in our write-up for our plays on the Wizards and Grizzlies, backing near-term momentum in post-season series openers has proven meaningfully profitable in the past.
Teams kicking off playoff series with wins in at least three of their last four tend to cover against teams that don't boast winning records in their most recent action...
This system has been good for a statistically significant 26% long-term return on investment, with only four losing seasons since 2004.
A separate system predicated on the prescience of the bookies likewise highights the Knicks cover.
In playoff action featuring teams that both missed the prior post-season, backing the favorite has proven a soundly profitable long-term strategy...
This second system has delivered a 15% return on investment since 2004, without ever suffering a losing season.
Separately, we have observed that rested road teams playing in their first post-season in a while tend to come out guns-a-blazing. Accordingly, and in spite of the Knicks' top-ten defense, we are backing the OVER as well.
Games featuring road teams that 1) missed the prior post-season and 2) are playing after six or more days off have exhibited a consistent bias toward the OVER...
This system has accrued a 16% long-term rate of return, and while this season's 6-5 record is rather uninspiring, the approach has delivered negative returns only twice since 2004.
Also inline with the prospects for the OVER Sunday afternoon, the 2020-21 Hawks boast the 9th most prolific offense in the NBA, outscoring the average team by roughly 2.5 points per 100 possessions, per CleaningTheGlass.com. When the Hawks have faced top-ten defenses this year, their offensive output dropped to no worse than the League average, or about 113 points per 100 possessions.
Further, the Knicks offense fared is materially better at MSG this year. New York's offense rating is 113 points per 100 possessions at home this season, versus about 108 on the road.
Not to mention both the Knicks and Hawks rank in the top-tercile of NBA teams by effective possession ratio.
Happy betting!!